Commentary

Crude Oil Coiling for a Breakout

Feb 27, 2015

Over the past three weeks, April crude oil found a rotational balance range of 4867-to-5505, traveling from the bottom to the top and back to the bottom of that range a few times. However, three times in the last three days, the market traded... more

Natural Gas Attempting a Break from Balance

Feb 20, 2015

For eight straight trading days, March natural gas has been contained within a 2665-to-2896 rotational balance range. On Friday, February 20, 2015, the market gapped open higher, above the 2896 eight-day balance high. Although Friday had a... more

Deflation and Commodity Prices

Feb 04, 2015

Commodity prices continue to be in a bear market. Industrial raw material prices have plunged over recent months. The price of crude oil halved since June. Iron ore prices have plummeted, and recently the price of copper dropped below long-term... more

A Follow Up on Copper

Feb 02, 2015

In my January 13 article, A Look at the Copper Market, I wrote, "...the support level at $2.72 may become more and more distant in the market's rearview mirror." Since the day I made that statement, the red metal has had a rough time.

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March Crude Oil Testing an Important Reference

Jan 23, 2015

Over the past four months, crude oil has declined about $50. However, during the past fourteen trading days, March crude oil had been rotating within a 4538-to-5078 balance range. On Friday, January 23, 2015, the market took out the 4538 fourteen... more

A Look at the Copper Market

Jan 13, 2015

Today's Lows are Tomorrow's Highs

Copper fell 15.78% on COMEX and 14.59% on the London Metal Exchange in 2014. Copper has been making lower highs and lower lows since July 2014. The copper market has just moved into a new zone and the... more

Gold Coiling For a Breakout

Jan 12, 2015

Over the past two months, February gold has been rotating within a 11469-to-12390 balance range. However, over the past four trading days, gold was confined to a relatively tight 12054-to-12233 balance range. When a volatile market such as gold... more

Failure Breakout in Natural Gas Spread Could Lead Move in Opposite Direction

Jan 05, 2015

Over the last thirty trading days, the February/April natural gas spread has come off sharply about 800 points, leaving several gaps along the way. A few weeks ago, after the spread fell about 500 points in ten days, the market came into a... more

New Year Reflections: Commodities Winners and Losers

Jan 05, 2015

The dollar is still the world's reserve currency and there is an inverse relationship between the greenback and commodity prices.

The Dollar and Commodities

In 2014, the dollar was a big winner and many commodities were losers.... more

Following the Path of Least Resistance

Nov 03, 2014

This article will try to illuminate why most retail traders fail at speculative trading. I would argue that the simplest reason for failure is that they are fighting the path of least resistance. Looking at the chart below (Figure 1) of the spot... more