Commentary

RBOB Calendar Spread Contained within a Tight Range

Mar 20, 2015

During the last few weeks, the April/May RBOB calendar spread has formed a rotational range of -78 to +99. However, over the past seven trading days, the trading range has shrunk to 0 to +55. A 55-tick range for the spot RBOB spread is very... more

NYMEX Crude Oil: A Market Going Nowhere?

Mar 02, 2015

The price of active month NYMEX crude oil is what everyone is focusing on these days, but that price is only a view from thirty thousand feet of what is actually going on in the global oil patch. There is so much more to the price of crude oil,... more

A Look at the Dollar: Prospects for a Continuation of the Trend

Mar 02, 2015

The bull market in the dollar continues to power forward. The US dollar index was up 11.97% in 2014. So far this year the greenback is up another 5.16%. The dollar is one of the strongest markets I see out there these days. Fundamentals for the... more

Crude Oil Coiling for a Breakout

Feb 27, 2015

Over the past three weeks, April crude oil found a rotational balance range of 4867-to-5505, traveling from the bottom to the top and back to the bottom of that range a few times. However, three times in the last three days, the market traded... more

Natural Gas Attempting a Break from Balance

Feb 20, 2015

For eight straight trading days, March natural gas has been contained within a 2665-to-2896 rotational balance range. On Friday, February 20, 2015, the market gapped open higher, above the 2896 eight-day balance high. Although Friday had a... more

Deflation and Commodity Prices

Feb 04, 2015

Commodity prices continue to be in a bear market. Industrial raw material prices have plunged over recent months. The price of crude oil halved since June. Iron ore prices have plummeted, and recently the price of copper dropped below long-term... more

A Follow Up on Copper

Feb 02, 2015

In my January 13 article, A Look at the Copper Market, I wrote, "...the support level at $2.72 may become more and more distant in the market's rearview mirror." Since the day I made that statement, the red metal has had a rough time.

... more

March Crude Oil Testing an Important Reference

Jan 23, 2015

Over the past four months, crude oil has declined about $50. However, during the past fourteen trading days, March crude oil had been rotating within a 4538-to-5078 balance range. On Friday, January 23, 2015, the market took out the 4538 fourteen... more

A Look at the Copper Market

Jan 13, 2015

Today's Lows are Tomorrow's Highs

Copper fell 15.78% on COMEX and 14.59% on the London Metal Exchange in 2014. Copper has been making lower highs and lower lows since July 2014. The copper market has just moved into a new zone and the... more

Gold Coiling For a Breakout

Jan 12, 2015

Over the past two months, February gold has been rotating within a 11469-to-12390 balance range. However, over the past four trading days, gold was confined to a relatively tight 12054-to-12233 balance range. When a volatile market such as gold... more