Commentary

Q1 Commodities Winners and Losers

Apr 07, 2015

The rally in the US Dollar that commenced in May 2014 continued to gain steam throughout much of the first quarter of 2015. The reserve currency of the world has an inverse relationship with commodity prices. In this piece, I describe how... more

Grains in 2015 - A Depressed Sector

Apr 07, 2015

Soybean and corn prices have certainly turned around over the past few years. After reaching highs during the aftermath of the 2012 drought, prices have gone south. In 2012, corn traded to highs of almost $8.50 per bushel while soybeans reached... more

RBOB Calendar Spread Contained within a Tight Range

Mar 20, 2015

During the last few weeks, the April/May RBOB calendar spread has formed a rotational range of -78 to +99. However, over the past seven trading days, the trading range has shrunk to 0 to +55. A 55-tick range for the spot RBOB spread is very... more

NYMEX Crude Oil: A Market Going Nowhere?

Mar 02, 2015

The price of active month NYMEX crude oil is what everyone is focusing on these days, but that price is only a view from thirty thousand feet of what is actually going on in the global oil patch. There is so much more to the price of crude oil,... more

A Look at the Dollar: Prospects for a Continuation of the Trend

Mar 02, 2015

The bull market in the dollar continues to power forward. The US dollar index was up 11.97% in 2014. So far this year the greenback is up another 5.16%. The dollar is one of the strongest markets I see out there these days. Fundamentals for the... more

Crude Oil Coiling for a Breakout

Feb 27, 2015

Over the past three weeks, April crude oil found a rotational balance range of 4867-to-5505, traveling from the bottom to the top and back to the bottom of that range a few times. However, three times in the last three days, the market traded... more

Natural Gas Attempting a Break from Balance

Feb 20, 2015

For eight straight trading days, March natural gas has been contained within a 2665-to-2896 rotational balance range. On Friday, February 20, 2015, the market gapped open higher, above the 2896 eight-day balance high. Although Friday had a... more

Deflation and Commodity Prices

Feb 04, 2015

Commodity prices continue to be in a bear market. Industrial raw material prices have plunged over recent months. The price of crude oil halved since June. Iron ore prices have plummeted, and recently the price of copper dropped below long-term... more

A Follow Up on Copper

Feb 02, 2015

In my January 13 article, A Look at the Copper Market, I wrote, "...the support level at $2.72 may become more and more distant in the market's rearview mirror." Since the day I made that statement, the red metal has had a rough time.

... more

March Crude Oil Testing an Important Reference

Jan 23, 2015

Over the past four months, crude oil has declined about $50. However, during the past fourteen trading days, March crude oil had been rotating within a 4538-to-5078 balance range. On Friday, January 23, 2015, the market took out the 4538 fourteen... more