Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - February 12, 2018

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

 

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $1.37 at 125.12 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The cattle market bulls have overall near-term technical advantage.

Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at the November high of $130.10. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $121.00. First resistance is seen at

$125.77 and then at $126.30. First support is seen at

$124.00 and then at today's low of $123.37. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

March feeder cattle closed up $0.87 at $147.62 today.

Prices closed nearer the session high. The feeder cattle market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above technical resistance at the February high of $151.95. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $142.50. First resistance is seen at today's high of

$148.65 and then at $150.00. First support is seen at

$146.50 and then at today's low of $145.52. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

April lean hogs closed up $1.47 at $70.37 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart today, after hitting a four-month low early on today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a steep four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $73.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $65.05. First resistance is seen at today's high of $70.72 and then at $71.50. First support is seen at $69.00 and then at today's low of $68.55. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

 

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed up 4 3/4 cents at

$3.66 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and closed at a 3.5-month high close today. The corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $3.75. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at $3.56 1/4. First resistance is seen at last week's high of $3.67 3/4 and then at the October high of $3.69 1/2. First support is seen at today's low of $3.64 1/4 and then at $3.61 1/2.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

March soybeans closed up 17 1/2 cents at $10.01 1/4 a bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session high and closed at nine-week high close today. The bean bulls have regained the near-term technical advantage. The next near- term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid resistance at the December high of $10.27 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $9.67 3/4. First resistance is seen at the January high of $10.04 3/4 and then at $10.13. First support is seen at $9.95 and then at today's low of $9.89.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

March soybean meal closed up $13.90 at $358.10 today.

Prices closed near the session high and hit a contract high today. The meal bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $375.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $335.00. First resistance comes in at today's high of

$358.10 and then at $360.00. First support is seen at

$355.00 and then at $350.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

 

March bean oil closed down 16 points at 31.88 cents today.

Prices closed nearer the session and hit a 1.5-year low today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 33.31 cents.

Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 28.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 32.00 cents and then at today's high of 32.36 cents.

First support is seen at today's low of 31.81 cents and then at 31.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

 

March Chicago SRW wheat closed up 15 cents at $4.64 today.

Prices closed nearer the session high and hit another four- month high today. The wheat bulls have the overall near- term technical advantage and gained fresh power today.

Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $4.82. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.25. First resistance is seen at today's high of $4.65 and then at $4.70. First support is seen at $4.58 and then at today's low of $4.51 1/2. Wyckoff's Market

Rating: 6.0.

 

March HRW wheat closed up 11 3/4 cents at $4.77 1/4 today.

Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.00. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.54 1/2.

First resistance is seen at today's high of $4.79 1/4 and then at last week's high of $4.84 1/2. First support is seen at $4.70 and then at $4.65. Wyckoff's Market Rating:

6.0

 

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 6 points at 13.73 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The sugar bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 14.50 cents. Bears'

next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at the January low of

13.02 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of

13.84 cents and then at last week's high of 14.04 cents.

First support is seen at 13.55 cents and then at 13.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

 

March coffee closed down 55 points at 121.30 cents today.

Prices closed nearer the session low today. The coffee bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage.

The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 125.85 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 118.30 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today's high of 123.20 cents and then at last week's high of 124.40 cents. First support is seen at

120.00 cents and then at the February low of 119.10 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

March cocoa closed down $59 at $1,972 a ton today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The cocoa bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but faded a bit today. Prices are still in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $2,067. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $1,900. First resistance is seen at $2,000 and then at today's high of $2,040. First support is seen at today's low of $1,953 and then at $1,925.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

 

March cotton closed down 34 points at 76.33 cents today.

Prices closed nearer the session low today. The cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid the recent pause on the daily chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 80.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 75.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 77.00 cents and then at 77.50 cents. First support is seen at last week's low of 75.82 cents and then at 75.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

March orange juice closed up 80 points at $1.4840 today.

Prices closed near mid-range. Bulls have the overall near- term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at the January high of $1.5270.

The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.3750. First resistance is seen at today's high of

$1.4895 and then at $1.5000. First support is seen at

$1.4660 and then at $1.4500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

March lumber futures closed up $2.50 at $485.50 today.

Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $467.80. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $500.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $492.00 and then at the contract high of $496.60. First support is seen at $480.00 and then at $475.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

 

*. METALS: April gold futures closed up $10.50 at $1,326.20 today. Prices closed the day session nearer the session high on short covering and bargain hunting. The key "outside markets" were bullish for gold today as the U.S.

dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were higher.

The gold bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but need to show more power soon to keep it.

Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,350.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of

$1,330.00 and then at $1,335.00. First support is seen at today's low of $1,316.30 and then at last week's low of $1,309.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

 

March silver futures closed up $0.431 at $16.57 today.

Prices closed nearer the session high today after on short covering and bargain hunting after hitting a six-week low last Friday. The key "outside markets" were bullish for silver today as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were higher. The silver bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $17.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at $16.75 and then at last week's high of $16.955.

Next support is seen at today's low of $16.28 and then at last week's low of $16.19. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

March N.Y. copper closed up 520 points at 308.55 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering after hitting a seven-week low on Friday. The key "outside markets" were bullish for copper today as the U.S.

dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were higher.

The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 325.75 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 300.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 311.90 cents and then at 315.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 304.25 cents and then at last week's low of 302.60 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

*. ENERGIES: March Nymex crude oil closed up $0.11 at

$59.31 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and well down from the daily high, on tepid short covering. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, downside price action recently suggests a near-term market top is in place. The next near- term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is pushing prices above resistance at $64.00. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $56.00. First resistance is seen at $60.00 and then at today's high of $60.83. First support is seen at today's low of $59.10 and then at last week's low of $58.07. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

March heating oil closed down 141 points at $1.8410 today.

Prices closed near the session low and closed at a 10-week low close today. The bears have gained the overall near- term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at $1.7500. First support lies at last week's low of $1.8302 and then at $1.8000. First resistance is seen at

$1.8500 and then at today's high of $1.8919. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

 

March (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 217 points at

$1.6785 today. Prices closed near the session low and closed at a 3.5-month low close today. The bears have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $1.8000. Bears'

next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at $1.6800. First resistance is seen at

$1.7000 and then at today's high of $1.7220. First support is seen at last week's low of $1.6704 and then at $1.6500.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

 

March natural gas closed down 2.1 cents at $2.552 today.

Prices closed nearer the session low and closed at a multi- year low close today. Bears have the solid overall near- term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.85. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $2.50. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2.607 and then at $2.65. First support is seen at the December low of $2.532 and then at $2.50.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

 

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency closed up 61 points at 1.2320 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls have the overall near- term technical advantage but have faded recently. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.2500.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at 1.2100. First resistance for the Euro lies at today's high of 1.2327 and then at 1.2350. Next support is seen at last week's low of

1.2233 and then at 1.2200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

The March Japanese yen closed down 80 points at .92225 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the January high of .92600. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at .90000. First resistance is seen at today's high of .94210 and then at the February high of .92750. First support is seen at

.92000 and then at .91665. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

The March Swiss franc closed down 7 points at 1.0674 today.

Prices closed nearer the session low today. The Swissy bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 1.0738. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.0708 and then at 1.0750. First support is seen at 1.0650 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff's Market

Rating: 7.0.

 

The March Australian dollar closed up 66 points at .7854 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw short covering after hitting a five-week low last  Friday. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at .8000.

The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at .7700.

First resistance is seen at today's high of .7857 and then at .7900. Next support is seen at .7800 and then at last week's low of .7757. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

The March Canadian dollar closed steady at .7943 today.

Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at the February high of .8168. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at .7800. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7967 and then at .8000. First support is seen at .7900 and then at last week's low of .7880. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

 

The March British pound closed up 29 points at 1.3854 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded a bit recently. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 1.4370. Bears'

next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at 1.3750. First resistance is seen at 1.3900 and then at 1.4000. First support is seen at last week's low of 1.3780 and then at 1.3750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

The March U.S. dollar index closed down 0.314 at 90.020 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. While the bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, the market has stabilized from recent selling pressure, to suggest a near-term bottom is in place. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 91.000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the January low of 88.250. Next resistance lies at last week's high of 90.455 and then at 90.800. First support is seen at 89.895 and then at 89.500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 16/32 at 144 8/32 today.

Prices closed near mid-range after hitting another contract low early on today. The bond market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and are poised to push the market still lower. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 140 even. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 148 even. First resistance is seen at today's high of 145 6/32 and then at

146 even. First support is seen at today's contract low of

143 4/32 and then at 143 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

March U.S. T Notes closed down 5.5 (32nds) at 120.27.5 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and are poised to push prices still lower in the near term. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 123.00.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at 120.00.0. First resistance is seen at today's high of

121.01.5 and then at 121.08.0. First support is seen at the contract low of 120.17.0 and then at 120.10.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

 

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: U.S. stock indexes closed sharply higher today. World stock markets were higher Monday, following sharp losses seen last week. The big question on traders' minds to start the week is if the recent period of very high daily price volatility has ended. Price action the first couple days of this week will go a long way in answering that question. Still, major chart damage has been inflicted on the U.S. stock indexes to suggest those markets have topped out. The key "outside markets" on Monday saw the U.S. dollar index weaker on a corrective pullback from recent good gains. However, there are early technical clues the USDX has put in a near-term market bottom. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices were slightly up on a tepid corrective bounce from recent solid losses and on the rebound in world stock markets. However, there are chart clues the oil market has topped out for at least the near term.

 

The March Nasdaq 100 stock index futures closed up 115.25 at 6,533.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Serious chart damage has been inflicted recently to still suggest a market top is in place and that near-term gains may be fleeting. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at last week's high of 6,813.50. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of 6,260.25. First resistance is seen at today's high of 6,567.50 and then at 6,600.00.

First support is seen at 6,500.00 and then at 6,450.00.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

 

The March e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed up 35.75 at 2,654.75 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Major near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently to strongly suggest a near-term market top is in place and that a future price uptrend will be very difficult to sustain. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at last week's high of 2,763.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at last week's low of 2,529.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of 2,671.50 and then at 2,700.00.

First support is seen at today's low of 2,620.00 and then at 2,600.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.


Disclaimer

Need to re-examine my welcome letter to all new customers and an explanation of my Market Rating System, just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll get those attachments emailed right back to you.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.