Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - February 13, 2018

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

 

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $0.25 at 125.25 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The cattle market bulls have overall near-term technical advantage.

Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at the November high of $130.10. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $121.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $125.97 and then at the February high of $127.20. First support is seen at $124.00 and then at this week's low of $123.37. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

March feeder cattle closed down $0.05 at $147.62 today.

Prices closed near mid-range. The feeder cattle market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.

Prices are in a choppy, seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above technical resistance at the February high of $151.95. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $142.50.

First resistance is seen at this week's high of $148.65 and then at $150.00. First support is seen at today's low of

$146.75 and then at this week's low of $145.52. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

April lean hogs closed down $1.12 at $69.40 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep four- week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $72.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $65.05. First resistance is seen at $70.00 and then at this week's high of $70.72. First support is seen at this week's low of $68.55 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed down 1/4 cent at $3.66

1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session low after hitting a 3.5-month high early on today. The corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $3.75. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at $3.56 1/4. First resistance is seen at today's high of $3.68 1/2 and then at the October high of $3.69 1/2. First support is seen at this week's low of $3.64 1/4 and then at $3.61 1/2.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

March soybeans closed up 9 1/2 cents at $10.10 3/4 a bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today and hit a nine-week high. The bean bulls have the near-term technical advantage and have momentum on their side. A four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been re- established. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid resistance at the December high of $10.27. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $9.67 3/4. First resistance is seen at today's high of $10.13 1/2 and then at $10.22 1/4. First support is seen at $10.00 and then at this week's low of $9.89. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

March soybean meal closed up $5.90 at $364.00 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another contract high today.

The meal bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $380.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $345.00. First resistance comes in at today's contract high of $371.60 and then at $375.00.

First support is seen at $360.00 and then at today's low of $357.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

 

March bean oil closed down 29 points at 31.59 cents today.

Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another 1.5- year low today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 33.31 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 28.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 32.00 cents and then at this week's high of 32.36 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 31.40 cents and then at 31.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market

Rating: 1.0

 

March Chicago SRW wheat closed down 5 cents at $4.59 1/4 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another four-month high early on today. Profit taking from recent gains was featured. The wheat bulls have the overall near- term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $4.82. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.25. First resistance is seen at today's high of $4.67 1/4 and then at $4.75. First support is seen at this week's low of $4.51 and then at $4.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

March HRW wheat closed down 3 cents at $4.74 1/2 today.

Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.00. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.54 1/2.

First resistance is seen at $4.80 and then at last week's high of $4.84 1/2. First support is seen at $4.70 and then at $4.65. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 25 points at 13.48 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The sugar bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls'

next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 14.50 cents.

Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at the January low of 13.02 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 13.70 cents and then at this week's high of

13.84 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 13.35 cents and then at 13.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:

2.0.

 

March coffee closed up 120 points at 122.60 cents today.

Prices closed nearer the session high today, on short covering. The coffee bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 125.85 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 118.30 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at this week's high of

123.20 cents and then at last week's high of 124.40 cents.

First support is seen at today's low of 120.50 cents and then at the February low of 119.10 cents. Wyckoff's Market

Rating: 2.0

 

March cocoa closed up $39 at $2,009 a ton today. Prices closed near the session high today. The cocoa bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $2,067. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $1,900. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $2,040 and then at $2,080. First support is seen at today's low of $1,966 and then at this week's low of $1,953. Wyckoff's Market

Rating: 6.0

 

March cotton closed down 37 points at 76.08 cents today.

Prices closed near mid-range today. The cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid the recent pause on the daily chart, which is not bullish. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 80.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 75.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 77.00 cents and then at 77.50 cents. First support is seen at last week's low of 75.82 cents and then at 75.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

March orange juice closed down 70 points at $1.4770 today.

Prices closed nearer the session low. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at the January high of $1.5270. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.3750. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $1.4895 and then at $1.5000.

First support is seen at $1.4660 and then at $1.4500.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

March lumber futures closed up $5.50 at $491.00 today.

Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $467.80. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $500.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $493.30 and then at the contract high of $496.60. First support is seen at today's low of $486.00 and then at this week's low of $481.80. Wyckoff's Market

Rating: 8.0

 

*. METALS: April gold futures closed up $3.50 at $1,329.90 today. Prices closed the day session nearer the session high. The U.S. dollar index was lower again today, which again supported gold. The gold bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but need to show more power soon to keep it. A three-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,350.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,333.50 and then at $1,340.00. First support is seen at today's low of

$1,323.70 and then at this week's low of $1,316.30.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

 

March silver futures closed down $0.02 at $16.55 today.

Prices closed near mid-range today. The silver bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $17.00 an ounce.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $16.645 and then at $16.75. Next support is seen at today's low of $16.41 and then at this week's low of $16.28. Wyckoff's Market Rating:

3.5.

 

March N.Y. copper closed up 760 points at 316.25 cents today. Prices closed near the session high on short covering and bargain hunting. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 325.75 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 300.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 317.50 cents and then at 320.00 cents. First support is seen at 315.00 cents and then at 312.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

*. ENERGIES: March Nymex crude oil closed down $0.06 at

$59.22 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, downside price action recently suggests a near-term market top is in place. The next near- term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is pushing prices above resistance at $64.00. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $56.00. First resistance is seen at $60.00 and then at this week's high of $60.83. First support is seen at today's low of $58.39 and then at last week's low of $58.07. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

March heating oil closed down 11 points at $1.8378 today.

Prices closed near mid-range and hit a 3.5-month low today.

The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.

The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.0000. Bears'

next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at $1.7000. First support lies at today's low of $1.8169 and then at $1.8000. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1.8562 and then at this week's high of $1.8919. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

 

March (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 68 points at

$1.6853 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a 3.5-month low early on today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $1.8000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at $1.6800. First resistance is seen at

$1.7000 and then at this week's high of $1.7220. First support is seen at today's low of $1.6519 and then at $1.6250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

 

March natural gas closed up 5.3 cents at $2.605 today.

Prices closed near mid-range today on short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.

The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.85.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $2.50.

First resistance is seen at today's high of $2.642 and then at $2.70. First support is seen at the December low of

$2.532 and then at $2.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

 

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency closed up 80 points at 1.2388 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls have the overall near- term technical advantage and have regained upside momentum this week. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 1.2576. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at 1.2200. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.2400 and then at 1.2450. Next support is seen at today's low of 1.2311 and then at last week's low of 1.2233. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

The March Japanese yen closed up 745 points at .92950 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the September high of .93635. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of .90730. First resistance is seen at today's high of .93290 and then at .93635. First support is seen at .92500 and then at .92000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

 

The March Swiss franc closed up 41 points at 1.0718 today.

Prices closed near mid-range today. The Swissy bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 1.0738. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.0754 and then at 1.0800. First support is seen at this week's low of 1.0665 and then at 1.0625. Wyckoff's Market Rating:

7.0.

 

The March Australian dollar closed up 18 points at .7858 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw more short covering. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at .8000. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at .7700. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7876 and then at .7900. Next support is seen at today's low of .7826 and then at .7800. Wyckoff's Market Rating:

5.0

 

The March Canadian dollar closed up 12 points at .7943 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at the February high of .8168. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at .7800. First resistance is seen at this week's high of .7967 and then at .8000. First support is seen at today's low of .7923 and then at .7900.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

 

The March British pound closed up 63 points at 1.3906 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded a bit recently. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 1.4370. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at 1.3750. First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.3942 and then at 1.4000. First support is seen at last week's low of 1.3780 and then at 1.3750. Wyckoff's Market Rating:

6.5.

 

The March U.S. dollar index closed down 0.521 at 89.575 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and have regained power this week. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 91.000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the January low of 88.250.

Next resistance lies at 90.000 and then at last week's high of 90.455. First support is seen at today's low of 89.490 and then at 89.250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 13/32 at 144 26/32 today.

Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering in a bear market. The bond market bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 142 even. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 148 even. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 145 6/32 and then at 146 even. First support is seen at today's low of 144

6/32 and then at 144 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

March U.S. T Notes closed up 6.0 (32nds) at 121.02.5 today.

Prices closed nearer the session high today. Short covering was featured. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 123.00.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at 120.00.0. First resistance is seen at today's high of 121.04.5 and then at 121.10.0. First support is seen at today's low of 120.27.0 and then at this week's low of 120.20.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

 

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today. World stock markets were mixed but mostly lower overnight. Worries about rising world inflation are keeping stock market traders and investors edgy. They also still worry about high daily volatility returning to the stock markets. The big U.S. economic report of the week will be Wednesday's consumer price index report. CPI for January is forecast to come in at up 0.4% from December and up 1.9% year-on-year. In overnight news, the U.K. reported its consumer price index at up a hot 3.0% in January, year- on-year.

 

The March Nasdaq 100 stock index futures closed up 24.50 at

6,556.25 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Serious chart damage has been inflicted recently to still suggest a market top is in place and that near-term gains may be fleeting. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at last week's high of 6,813.50. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of 6,260.25. First resistance is seen at today's high of 6,517.00 and then at 6,600.00.

First support is seen at 6,500.00 and then at today's low of 6,470.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

 

The March e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed up 5.75 at 2,661.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Major near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently to strongly suggest a near-term market top is in place and that a future price uptrend will be very difficult to sustain. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at last week's high of 2,763.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at last week's low of 2,529.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 2,671.50 and then at 2,700.00. First support is seen at today's low of 2,634.25 and then at this week's low of 2,620.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.


Disclaimer

Need to re-examine my welcome letter to all new customers and an explanation of my Market Rating System, just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll get those attachments emailed right back to you.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.