Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - February 20, 2018

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

 

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $0.07 at 127.72 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit another three-month high today. The cattle market bulls have firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at the November high of $130.10. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $122.50. First resistance is seen at $128.00 and then at $129.00. First support is seen at $126.87 and then at $126.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

May feeder cattle closed up $0.22 at $153.05 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a three-month high today. The feeder cattle market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month- old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above technical resistance at the November high of $157.85. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $148.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $153.55 and then at $154.00. First support is seen at today's low of $152.10 and then at $151.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

April lean hogs closed up $1.17 at $69.32 today. Prices closed near mid-range on short covering. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six- week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $72.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $65.05. First resistance is seen at $70.00 and then at last week's high of $71.27. First support is seen at last week's low of $68.02 and then at $67.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed down 1 cent at $3.74 today. Prices closed nearer the session low on profit taking after hitting a 3.5-month high early on today. Prices also scored a mildly bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart today. The corn bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $3.85. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at the February low of $3.64 1/4. First resistance is seen at today's high of $3.78 and then at $3.80. First support is seen at $3.72 and then at $3.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

May soybeans closed up 4 1/4 cents at $10.36 1/4 a bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after hitting seven-month high early on. Today's low-range close suggests the bulls are now exhausted after the recent steep price gains. The bean bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage. A steep five-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid resistance at the July 2017 high of $10.53. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $10.50 and then at $10.53. First support is seen at $10.25 and then at $10.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

May soybean meal closed up $2.00 at $378.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low after hitting another contract high early on today. Today's low-range close suggests the bulls are now exhausted and the market is due for a corrective pullback. The meal bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $400.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $360.00. First resistance comes in at today's contract high of $387.90 and then at $390.00. First support is seen at $375.80 and then at $370.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

 

May bean oil closed up 30 points at 32.03 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering today. The bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover not far above the recent 2.5-year low. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 33.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 30.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 32.25 cents and then at 32.50 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 31.61 cents and then at 31.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 8 3/4 cents at $4.62 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit taking from recent gains. The wheat still bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Prices are in a five- week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to push and close SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $4.95. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.40. First resistance is seen at $4.70 and then at $4.75. First support is seen at $4.60 and then at the February low of $4.51. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

 

May HRW wheat closed down 6 1/2 cents at $4.87 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after hitting a seven-month high early on. Prices also scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.20. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.60. First resistance is seen at today's high of $5.00 1/4 and then at $5.10. First support is seen at $4.80 and then at $4.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 1 point at 13.29 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The sugar bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 14.02 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at the January low of 13.17 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 13.44 cents and then at 13.50 cents. First support is seen at last week's low of 13.20 cents and then at 13.17 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

 

May coffee closed down 65 points at 119.80 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a contract low today. The coffee bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 126.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 115.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today's high of 121.00 cents and then at 124.00 cents. First support is seen at today's contract low of 119.50 cents and then at 117.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

 

May cocoa closed up $10 at $2,144 a ton today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a three- month high close. The cocoa bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an accelerating six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of $2,235. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,000. First resistance is seen at last week's high of $2,157 and then at $2,200. First support is seen at today's low of $2,116 and then at $2,100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

May cotton closed up 201 points at 79.17 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a three-week high today. The cotton bulls have regained the overall near-term technical advantage. A four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart was soundly negated today. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 82.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at the February low of 76.44 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 79.74 cents and then at 80.00 cents. First support is seen at 78.50 cents and then at 78.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

May orange juice closed down 365 points at $1.4625 today. Prices closed near the session low and scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart today. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but trading has turned choppy. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at the January high of $1.5245. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.3750. First resistance is seen at $1.4800 and then at today's high of $1.5020. First support is seen at today's low of $1.4590 and then at $1.4500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

 

March lumber futures closed up $8.20 at $516.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit another contract high. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $485.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $530.00. First resistance is seen at today's contract high of $517.50 and then at $520.00. First support is seen at $510.00 and then at today's low of $506.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

 

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $24.20 at $1,331.90 today. Prices closed the day session near the daily low and saw heavy profit taking from recent good gains. No serious chart damage was inflicted today, but the bulls need to step up and show fresh power soon. The gold bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the January high of $1,370.50. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $1,309.00. First resistance is seen at $1,340.00 and then at $1,350.00. First support is seen at $1,325.00 and then at $1,320.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

March silver futures closed down $0.267 at $16.445 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The silver bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $17.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $16.69 and then at last week's high of $16.95. Next support is seen at $16.325 and then at $16.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

 

March N.Y. copper closed down 625 points at 318.60 cents today. Prices closed near the session low. The copper bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of 323.65 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 302.60 cents. First resistance is seen at 320.00 cents and then at today's high of 324.60 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 318.05 cents and then at 315.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

*. ENERGIES: April Nymex crude oil closed up $0.07 at $61.62 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage with the recent good rebound. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is pushing prices above resistance at $64.00. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of $57.90. First resistance is seen at $62.00 and then at today's high of $62.65. First support is seen at today's low of $61.43 and then at $61.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

April heating oil closed up 149 points at $1.9233 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls and bears are now back on a level overall near-term technical playing field after the recent rebound. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at $1.8000. First support lies at today's low of $1.9082 and then at $1.8800. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1.9414 and then at $1.9800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 26 points at $1.9346 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bulls and bears are now back on a level overall near-term technical playing field after the recent rebound. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $1.8284. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1.9535 and then at 1.9800. First support is seen at $1.9081 and then at $1.8788. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

April natural gas closed up 6.5 cents at $2.649 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.82. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of $2.487. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2.677 and then at $2.70. First support is seen at today's low of $2.602 and then at the February low of $2.565. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed down 82 points at 1.2440 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit taking from recent gains. The bulls may now be exhausted for the near term. The bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 1.2658. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the February low of 1.2317. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.2500 and then at today's high of 1.2538. Next support is seen at today's low of 1.2426 and then at 1.2400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

The June Japanese yen closed down 845 points at .93960 today. Prices closed nearer the session low on more profit taking after hitting a contract high last week. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but now appear to be short-term exhausted. Prices are still in a steep six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at .96000. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at .92000. First resistance is seen at .94500 and then at .95000. First support is seen at .93500 and then at .93000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

The June Swiss franc closed down 99 points at 1.0790 today. Prices closed nearer the session low on profit taking after hitting a 22-month high last week. The Swissy bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but now appear to be short-term exhausted. Prices are in a 10- week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 1.0669. First resistance is seen at 1.0850 and then at 1.0900. First support is seen at today's low of 1.0783 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

 

The June Australian dollar closed down 57 points at .7924 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at the February high of .8175. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of .7763. First resistance is seen at .7950 and then at .8000. First support is seen at today's low of .7923 and then at the February low of .7895. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

 

The June Canadian dollar closed up 8 points at .7920 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls have regained the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at the January high of .8135. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at .7700. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7965 and then at .8000. Next support is seen at today's low of .7891 and then at .7825. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

 

The June British pound closed down 37 points at 1.4056 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 1.4404. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the February low of 1.3837. First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.4105 and then at last week's high of 1.4207. First support is seen at 1.4000 and then at 1.3900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 0.622 at 89.295 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on more short covering today. The bears still have the firm overall near- term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 91.000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of 87.830. Next resistance lies at 89.500 and then at 89.750. First support is seen at today's low of 88.780 and then at 88.500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

 

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 9/32 at 142 30/32 today. Prices closed near mid-range. Prices last week hit a contract low. The bond market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 141 even. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 147 even. First resistance is seen at today's high of 143 13/32 and then at 143 26/32. First support is seen at today's low of 142 13/32 and then at the contract low of 142 3/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

June U.S. T Notes closed down 3.0 (32nds) at 119.29.5 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 122.02.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at 119.00.0. First resistance is seen at today's high of 120.02.5 and then at 120.06.5. First support is seen at today's low of 119.18.5 and then at the contract low of 119.14.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

 

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: U.S. stock indexes closed mixed today. Global stock markets were mostly lower Tuesday. China markets are still closed for a holiday. Rising world government bond yields are also prompting selling pressure in equities early this week. Tuesday saw a somewhat volatile trading day in the U.S. stock market. 

 

The March Nasdaq 100 stock index futures closed up 3.75 at 6,790.50 today. Prices closed near mid-range. Bulls have regained the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the January high of 7,047.25. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 6,400.00. First resistance is seen at last week's high of 6,859.75 and then at 6,900.00. First support is seen at today's low of 6,723.25 and then at 6,700.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

The March e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed down 21.00 at 2,714.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 2,763.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at last week's low of 2,620.00. First resistance is seen at last week's high of 2,754.75 and then at 2,775.00. First support is seen at 2,700.00 and then at 2,688.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.


Disclaimer

Need to re-examine my welcome letter to all new customers and an explanation of my Market Rating System, just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll get those attachments emailed right back to you.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.