Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - February 21, 2018

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

 

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $1.57 at 126.15 today. Prices closed near mid-range today on profit taking after hitting another three-month high on Tuesday. The cattle market bulls still have overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at the November high of $130.10. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $122.50. First resistance is seen at $127.00 and then at this week's high of $127.95. First support is seen at today's low of $124.72 and then at $124.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

May feeder cattle closed down $3.15 at $149.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session low on heavy profit taking after hitting a three-month high on Tuesday. The feeder cattle market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above technical resistance at the November high of $157.85. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $148.00. First resistance is seen at $151.00 and then at $152.00. First support is seen at today's low of $149.35 and then at $148.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

April lean hogs closed up $0.63 at $69.95 today. Prices closed near mid-range on more short covering. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $72.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $65.05. First resistance is seen at today's high of $70.55 and then at last week's high of $71.27. First support is seen at today's low of $69.12 and then at last week's low of $68.02. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed down 1/4 cent at $3.73 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $3.85. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at the February low of $3.64 1/4. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $3.78 and then at $3.80. First support is seen at today's low of $3.72 1/4 and then at $3.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

May soybeans closed up 7 1/4 cents at $10.45 a bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a seven-month high close. The bean bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage and regained upside momentum today. A steep five-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid resistance at the July 2017 high of $10.53. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $10.50 and then at $10.53. First support is seen at $10.35 and then at $10.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

May soybean meal closed up $3.50 at $381.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and closed at a contract high close today. The meal bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and regained upside momentum today. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $400.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $360.00. First resistance comes in at Tuesday's contract high of $387.90 and then at $390.00. First support is seen at $375.80 and then at $370.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

 

May bean oil closed up 18 points at 32.21 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range on short covering today. The bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover not far above the recent 2.5-year low. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 33.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 30.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 32.47 cents and then at 32.75 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 31.92 cents and then at this week's low of 31.61 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 3 cents at $4.59 1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a two- week low today on more profit taking from recent gains. The wheat still bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage as the price uptrend is rolling over. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to push and close SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $4.79 1/2. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.40. First resistance is seen at today's high of $4.65 and then at $4.70. First support is seen at today's low of $4.58 1/4 and then at the February low of $4.51. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

May HRW wheat closed down 5 1/4 cents at $4.82 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after hitting a seven-month high on Tuesday. The bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Prices are still in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.20. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.60. First resistance is seen at today's high of $4.8 1/4 and then at this week's high of $5.00 1/4. First support is seen at today's low of $4.78 1/2 and then at $4.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

 

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed down 2 points at 13.27 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The sugar bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 14.02 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at the January low of 13.17 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 13.44 cents and then at 13.50 cents. First support is seen at last week's low of 13.20 cents and then at 13.17 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

 

May coffee closed down 85 points at 118.85 cents today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another contract low today. The coffee bears have the solid overall near- term technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 126.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 115.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 120.00 cents and then at this week's high of 121.00 cents. First support is seen at today's contract low of 118.75 cents and then at 117.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

 

May cocoa closed down $1 at $2,147 a ton today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a three-month high. The cocoa bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an accelerating six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of $2,235. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,000. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,175 and then at $2,200. First support is seen at today's low of $2,124 and then at this week's low of $2,116. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

May cotton closed up 102 points at 79.97 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit another three-week high today. The cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and now have momentum on their side. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 82.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at the February low of 76.44 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 80.52 cents and then at 81.00 cents. First support is seen at 79.50 cents and then at 79.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

 

May orange juice closed down 415 points at $1.4210 today. Prices gapped sharply lower on the daily bar chart but closed near the session high. Bears have gained the overall near-term technical advantage with this week's strong selling pressure. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at this week's high of $1.5020. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.3750. First resistance is seen at $1.4500 and then at $1.4590. First support is seen at today's low of $1.4050 and then at $1.3900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

March lumber futures closed up $9.90 at $526.70 today. Prices closed near the session high and hit another contract high. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $500.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $540.00. First resistance is seen at $528.00 and then at $530.00. First support is seen at $520.00 and then at today's low of $518.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0

 

*. METALS: April gold futures were up $5.40 at $1,336.90 in afternoon trading today, getting a modest lift from the FOMC minutes report. Prices were near the daily high. Some bargain hunting was featured today, after the strong losses posted on Tuesday. No serious chart damage was inflicted with Tuesday's downturn. The gold bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the January high of $1,370.50. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $1,309.00. First resistance is seen at $1,350.00 and then at this week's high of $1,354.00. First support is seen at today's low of $1,326.80 and then at $1,320.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

March silver futures were up $0.272 at $16.70 in afternoon trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and scoring a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart. The silver bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $17.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at last week's high of $16.95 and then at $17.00. Next support is seen at $16.50 and then at today's low of $16.34. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

 

March N.Y. copper closed up 350 points at 322.60 cents today. Prices closed near the session high. The copper bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of 323.65 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 302.60 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 324.60 cents and then at last week's high of 327.20 cents. First support is seen 320.00 cents and then at today's low of 316.40 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

 

*. ENERGIES: April Nymex crude oil closed down $0.11 at $61.68 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is pushing prices above resistance at $64.00. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of $57.90. First resistance is seen at $62.00 and then at this week's high of $62.65. First support is seen at today's low of $60.92 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

April heating oil closed down 35 points at $1.9228 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at $1.8000. First support lies at today's low of $1.9069 and then at $1.8800. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $1.9414 and then at $1.9800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 100 points at $1.9446 today. Prices closed near the session high. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field after the recent rebound. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $1.8284. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $1.9535 and then at 1.9800. First support is seen at today's low of $1.9243 and then at $1.9000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

April natural gas closed up 3.0 cents at $2.679 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw more short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.82. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of $2.487. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2.701 and then at $2.75. First support is seen at today's low of $2.593 and then at the February low of $2.565. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed down 46 points at 1.2394 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on more profit taking from recent gains. The bulls appear exhausted for the near term. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 1.2658. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the February low of 1.2317. First resistance for the Euro lies at today's high of 1.2459 and then at 1.2500. Next support is seen at today's low of 1.2391 and then at the February low of 1.2317. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

The June Japanese yen closed down 455 points at .93490 today. Prices closed nearer the session low on more profit taking after hitting a contract high last week. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but now appear to be exhausted. Prices are still in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the contract high of .95485. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at .92000. First resistance is seen at .94000 and then at .94500. First support is seen at .93000 and then at .92500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

The June Swiss franc closed down 27 points at 1.0763 today. Prices closed near the session low on more profit taking after hitting a 22-month high last week. The Swissy bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but now appear to be short-term exhausted. Prices are in a 10-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 1.0669. First resistance is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0850. First support is seen at 1.0750 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

 

The June Australian dollar closed down 69 points at .7811 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at the February high of .8130. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at .7650. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7894 and then at this week's high of .7934. First support is seen at .7800 and then at the February low of .7761. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

The June Canadian dollar closed down 34 points at .7899 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a two- month low today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at the January high of .8175. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the October low of .7763. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7935 and then at this week's high of .7996. Next support is seen at today's low of .7889 and then at .7850. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

The June British pound closed down 67 points at 1.3989 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 1.4404. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the February low of 1.3837. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 1.4105 and then at last week's high of 1.4207. First support is seen at today's low of 1.3979 and then at 1.3900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 0.354 at 89.635 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on more short covering today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, now a bullish double-bottom reversal pattern could be forming on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 91.000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of 87.830. Next resistance lies at today's high of 89.665 and then at 90.000. First support is seen at today's low of 89.135 and then at this week's low of 88.780. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 1 10/32 at 141 18/32 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a contract low. The bond market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 140 even. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 146 even. First resistance is seen at 142 even and then at today's high of 143 5/32. First support is seen at today's contract low of 141 14/32 and then at 141 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

 

June U.S. T Notes closed down 11.5 (32nds) at 119.17.5 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and closed at a contract low close. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 122.02.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at 119.00.0. First resistance is seen at 120.00.0 and then at 120.06.5. First support is seen at today's low of 119.15.5 and then at the contract low of 119.14.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

 

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: U.S. stock indexes closed lower today. The Wednesday afternoon release of the latest minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting said stronger-than expected U.S. economic growth in recent weeks is keeping the Federal Reserve on pace to keep gradually raising U.S. interest rates. The January meeting minutes also said the Fed expects annual U.S. inflation to continue to creep up, and to reach the Fed's target of around 2% annual inflation this year. However, some FOMC members questioned whether U.S. inflation would reach the 2.0% annual level this year. The U.S. dollar index sold off on the news and then rebounded. It can be argued the FOMC minutes contained elements that could be perceived as both dovish and hawkish on U.S. monetary policy. U.S. stock indexes rallied in the wake of the FOMC minutes' release, but then sold off. Keep in mind the last FOMC meeting occurred before the big increase in volatility in the stock markets and was the last meeting overseen by former Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

 

The March Nasdaq 100 stock index futures closed down 30.00 at 6,760.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the January high of 7,047.25. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 6,400.00. First resistance is seen at 6,800.00 and then at today's high of 6,885.50. First support is seen at this week's low of 6,723.25 and then at 6,700.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

The March e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed down 14.25 at 2,699.75 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 2,763.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at last week's low of 2,620.00. First resistance is seen at last week's high of 2,754.75 and then at 2,775.00. First support is seen at today's low of 2,693.50 and then at 2,667.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.


Disclaimer

Need to re-examine my welcome letter to all new customers and an explanation of my Market Rating System, just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll get those attachments emailed right back to you.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.