Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - March 12, 2018

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

 

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $1.47 at 121.65 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and closed at a seven-week low close. The cattle market bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid resistance at the February high of $127.95. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $118.05. First resistance is seen at $123.00 and then at $123.50. First support is seen at last week's low of $120.90 and then at $120.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

 

May feeder cattle closed down $0.67 at $143.97 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and closed at a seven- week low close today. The feeder cattle market bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close prices above technical resistance at $150.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the December low of $139.20. First resistance is seen at today's high of $145.25 and then at $146.00. First support is seen at last week's low of $143.32 and then at $142.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

April lean hogs closed down $0.15 at $67.40 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on tepid short covering after hitting a six-month low last week. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to close prices above solid chart resistance at $72.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $65.05. First resistance is seen at $68.30 and then at last week's high of $69.32. First support is seen at last week's low of $66.42 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

 

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed up 1/4 cent at $3.90 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Prices late last week hit a six-month high. The corn bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at $4.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $3.80. First resistance is seen at last week's high of $3.93 3/4 and then at $3.95. First support is seen at today's low of $3.87 and then at $3.85. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

May soybeans closed up 5 cents at $10.41 3/4 a bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session high on a tepid rebound from strong selling pressure seen late last week. The bean bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but a two-month-old uptrend has been negated to now suggest a near-term market top is in place. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the March high of $10.82 1/2. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.20. First resistance is seen at $10.50 and then at $10.60. First support is seen at today's low of $10.32 and then at $10.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

May soybean meal closed down $3.00 at $370.30 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a three-week low today. The meal bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the recent selling pressure negated a price uptrend to suggest a market top is in place. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the March high of $404.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $350.00. First resistance comes in at today's high of $375.60 and then at $378.00. First support is seen at $370.00 and then at $365.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

May bean oil closed up 12 points at 31.73 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering in a bear market. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 33.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 31.61 cents. First resistance is seen at 31.89 cents and then at 32.00 cents. First support is seen at last week's low of 31.43 cents and then at 31.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

May Chicago SRW wheat closed up 1 cent at $4.91 1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The wheat bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent strong selling pressure suggests a near- term market top is in place. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to push and close SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $5.18 1/2. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.70. First resistance is seen at today's high of $4.92 3/4 and then at $5.00. First support is seen at today's low of $4.83 and then at $4.79. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

May HRW wheat closed up 1 3/4 cents at $5.22 1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.75. The bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.25 and then at $5.33 1/4. First support is seen at today's low of $5.13 and then at $5.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 9 points at 12.93 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw tepid short covering after hitting a contract and multi- year low last week. The sugar bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage, to suggest another leg down in prices. A bear flag pattern has now formed, too. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 14.02 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 12.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 13.11 cents and then at 13.36 cents. First support is seen at the contract low of 12.75 cents and then at 12.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

 

May coffee closed down 65 points at 119.50 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range. The coffee bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 126.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 115.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at last week's high of 122.30 cents and then at the March high of 124.20 cents. First support is seen at the February low of 118.55 cents and then at 115.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

May cocoa closed up $80 at $2,545 a ton today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit another 1.5-year high today. The cocoa bulls have the solid overall near- term technical advantage. Prices are in an accelerating 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,750. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $2,331. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,569 and then at $2,600. First support is seen at $2,500 and then at today's low of $2,453. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

 

May cotton closed down 139 points at 83.13 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low on normal profit taking. The cotton bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 87.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 84.00 cents and then at 85.00 cents. First support is seen at 82.50 cents and then at 82.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

 

May orange juice closed down 155 points at $1.3880 today. Prices closed near the session low. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six- week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at $1.4600. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the December low of $1.3345. First resistance is seen at $1.4000 and then at last week's high of $1.4335. First support is seen at the March low of $1.3785 and then at $1.3500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

May lumber futures closed up $3.20 at $486.60 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the recent selling pressure still suggests a market top is in place. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $450.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $500.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $492.70 and then at $495.00. First support is seen at $480.00 and then at the March low of $474.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $4.30 at $1,319.70 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The gold bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,350.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,325.00 and then at $1,330.00. First support is seen at last week's low of $1,313.20 and then at $1,309.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May silver futures closed down $0.093 at $16.515 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $17.04 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at $16.75 and then at the March high of $16.895. Next support is seen at last week's low of $16.33 and then at the March low of $16.16. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

May N.Y. copper closed down 150 points at 312.10 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded and need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 325.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 304.65 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 315.55 cents and then at 318.00 cents. First support is seen at 310.00 cents and then at 307.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

 

*. ENERGIES: April Nymex crude oil closed down $0.82 at $61.22 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways recently. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is closing prices above resistance at the February high of $64.24. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of $57.90. First resistance is seen at $62.00 and then at today's high of $62.33. First support is seen at today's low of $60.67 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

 

April heating oil closed down 214 points at $1.8652 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at the February low of $1.8097. First resistance lies at today's high of $1.8890 and then at last week's high of $1.9111. First support is seen at today's low of $1.8375 and then at $1.8097. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

 

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 112 points at $1.8931 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $2.0122. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $1.8284. First resistance is seen at $1.9250 and then at last week's high of 1.9486. First support is seen at the March low of $1.8566 and then at $1.8284. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

April natural gas closed up 5.5 cents at $2.787 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a five- week high. Bulls have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.90. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $2.565. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2.804 and then at $2.85. First support is seen at today's low of $2.718 and then at $2.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

 

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed up 19 points at 1.2425 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls have the overall near- term technical advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 1.2658. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the March low of 1.2254. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.2450 and then at 1.2500. Next support is seen at last week's low of 1.2364 and then at 1.2300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

The June Japanese yen closed up 325 points at .94625 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at .97000. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at .92500. First resistance is seen at .95050 and then at .95475. First support is seen at .94000 and then at .93430. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

The June Swiss franc closed up 40 points at 1.0645 today. Prices closed near the session low high on short covering after hitting a six-week low on Friday. The Swissy bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. A four-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 1.0986. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen at 1.0700 and then at 1.0750. First support is seen at last week's low of 1.0583 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

The June Australian dollar closed up 29 points at .7880 today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at the February high of .7985. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at .7600. First resistance is seen at .7900 and then at .7950. First support is seen at .7850 and then at .7800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

The June Canadian dollar closed down 3 points at .7805 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at .7900. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at .7500. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7826 and then at .7850. Next support is seen at .7763 and then at the March low of .7708. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

 

The June British pound closed up 56 points at 1.3965 today. Prices closed near the session high. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. A six-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.4200. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at 1.3600. First resistance is seen at 1.4000 and then at 1.4100. First support is seen at last week's low of 1.3829 and then at the March low of 1.3779. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 0.215 at 89.425 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 91.000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of 87.830. Next resistance lies at last week's high of 89.930 and then at the March high of 90.490. First support is seen at last week's low of 88.915 and then at 88.500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 19/32 at 143 23/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on more short covering. The bond market bears have the firm overall near- term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 141 14/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 147 even. First resistance is seen at 144 even and then at the March high of 144 20/32. First support is seen at 143 even and then at today's low of 142 27/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

 

June U.S. T Notes closed up 5.5 (32nds) at 120.06.5 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on more short covering. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 122.02.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at the contract low of 119.14.0. First resistance is seen at 120.14.5 and then at the March high of 120.23.0. First support is seen at last week's low of 119.26.5 and then at 119.20.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

 

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: U.S. stock indexes closed higher again today. Bulls are back in firm near-term technical control amid a general risk-on trader mentality in the world marketplace.

 

The March Nasdaq 100 stock index futures closed up 39.75 at 7,138.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a new contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 7,500.00. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 6,800.00. First resistance is seen at today's contract high of 7,158.75 and then at 7,200.00. First support is seen at today's low of 7,090.00 and then at 7,000.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

 

The March e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed up 1.00 at 2,784.75 today. Prices closed nearer the session low after hitting a five-week high early on today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the contract high of 2,878.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of 2,647.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of 2,800.50 and then at 2,825.00. First support is seen at 2,750.00 and then at 2,730.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.


Disclaimer

Need to re-examine my welcome letter to all new customers and an explanation of my Market Rating System, just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll get those attachments emailed right back to you.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.