Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - March 13, 2018

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NOTE: I was out of the office this afternoon. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen produced my afternoon report. His style is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his insight.--Jim

 

The STOCK INDEXES

The June NASDAQ 100 posted a key reversal down on Tuesday after Qualcomm.inc. fell 4.7% after Trump on Monday blocked Broadcom Ltd's$117 billion hostile bid for the semiconductor group, citing national security concerns. Today's decline ended a seven-day rally and the low- range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. With June extending this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 6808.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7214.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6969.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6808.30.

 

The June S&P 500 posted a key reversal down on Tuesday as tech and energy sectors came under pressure. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, February's high crossing at 2879.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2732.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2806.00. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 2879.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2732.45. Second support is March's low crossing at 2663.00.

 

The Dow closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off March's low, the late-February high crossing at 25,800.35 is the next upside target. If the Dow renews the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 23,360.29 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 25,800.35. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 26,338.03. First support is March's low crossing at 24,217.76. Second support is February's low crossing at 23,360.29.   

 

INTEREST RATES

June T-bonds closed up 18/32's at 144-09. June T-bonds closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 146-01 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 140-03 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the December- February-decline crossing at 144-14. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 146-01. First support is February's low crossing at 141-14. Second support is weekly support crossing at 140-03.  

 

June T-notes closed up 70/32's at 120-135. June T-notes closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 121-050 is the next upside target. If June resumes this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 117.295 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 120.230. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.050. First support is February's low crossing at 119.140. Second support is weekly support crossing at 117.295.  

 

ENERGY MARKETS

April crude oil closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 57.90 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 66.66 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 64.24. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 66.66. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 60.06. Second support is February's low crossing at 57.90.

 

April heating oil closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, February's low crossing at 180.97 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 190.54. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.60. First support is February's low crossing at 180.97. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 176.89.

 

April unleaded gas closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month's decline, February's low crossing at 183.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at

192.40 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the late-February high crossing at 201.22. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 208.46. First support is February's low crossing at 183.84. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 179.34.

 

April Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 2.833 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.696 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.811. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.833. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.696. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.565.

 

CURRENCIES

The June Dollar closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 87.83 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 88.91. Second support is February's low crossing at 87.83.

 

The June Euro closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off the March 1st low, February's high crossing at 126.58 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.97. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 125.47. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 126.58. First support is the March 1st low crossing at 122.54. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.97.   

 

The June British Pound closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3975 confirms that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.3628 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4207. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4404. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.3779. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.3628.    

 

The June Swiss Franc closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20- day moving average crossing at 1.0751 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0559 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0751. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0986. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0559. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0458.

 

The June Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 76.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.56. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.04. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 76.92. Second support is weekly support crossing at 76.04. 

 

The June Japanese Yen closed lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9445 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of 2016's trading range crossing at 0.9732 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2016's trading range crossing at 0.9542. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2016's trading range crossing at 0.9732. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9445. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.9343.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS

April gold closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1342.90 are needed to confirm that a short- term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1342.90. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1364.40. Third resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60.

 

May silver closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 17.025 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the February-March trading range. Closes below March's low crossing at 16.160 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.025. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.785. First support is March's low crossing at 16.160. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705.    

 

May copper closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 317.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 304.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 317.83. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 320.01. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 305.55. Second support is February's low crossing at 304.65.

 

GRAINS

May Corn closed up 3/4-cents at 3.91 1/2. May corn closed fractionally higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off January's low. The low- range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 4.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.81 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.95 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-January- decline crossing at 4.01. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.88. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.81 1/2. 

 

May wheat closed down 4 1/2-cents at 4.86 1/4. May wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.83 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.38 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.16 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.38 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.83 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.63 1/2.    

 

May Kansas City Wheat closed down 2-cents at 5.20 1/4. May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.10 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off December's high, the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.70 3/4. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.44 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.70 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.10 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.80 1/4.   

 

May soybeans closed up 7 1/2-cents at 10.48 1/2.  May soybeans closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.59 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 10.91 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.34. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.19.

 

May soybean meal closed up $5.60 at 376.00. May soybean meal closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 384.60 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 404.00. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 414.70. First support is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 369.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00. 

 

May soybean oil closed up 44 pts. At 32.19. May soybean oil closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, the July-2016 low crossing at 31.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is the late- February high crossing at 32.96. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 33.50. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 31.43. Second support is the July-2016 low crossing at 31.37.

 

LIVESTOCK

April hogs closed down $0.05 at $67.72. April hogs closed lower on Tuesday but remains above support marked by the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.01 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off January's high, last August's low crossing at 65.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.01. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 71.95. First support is the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60. Second support is last-August low crossing at 65.03.

 

April cattle closed up $0.35 at 121.90. April cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 118.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.17 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 127.95. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.10. First support is today's low crossing at 120.75. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.

 

April Feeder cattle closed down $0.28 at $142.30. April Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 140.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 147.41 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 147.41. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 153.10. First support is January's low crossing at 140.25. Second support is December's low crossing at 139.27.  

 

FOOD & FIBER

May coffee closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.14 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target.   

 

May cocoa closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 25.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

 

May sugar closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 12.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.25 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

 

May cotton closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.47 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target.


Disclaimer

Need to re-examine my welcome letter to all new customers and an explanation of my Market Rating System, just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll get those attachments emailed right back to you.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.