Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - March 14, 2018

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

 

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $1.22 at 123.12 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw some short covering. The cattle market bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid the recent choppy trading. Prices are still in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid resistance at the February high of $127.95. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $118.05. First resistance is seen at today's high of $124.30 and then at $125.00. First support is seen at $122.50 and then at this week's low of $120.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May feeder cattle closed up $0.42 at $143.55 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The feeder cattle market bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close prices above technical resistance at $148.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the December low of $139.20. First resistance is seen at today's high of $145.00 and then at $146.00. First support is seen at this week's low of $142.10 and then at $141.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

 

April lean hogs closed down $0.92 at $66.85 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to close prices above solid chart resistance at $72.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $65.05. First resistance is seen at today's high of $68.85 and then at this week's high of $68.85. First support is seen at last week's low of $66.42 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed down 3 1/4 cents at $3.88 1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session low on profit taking after hitting a seven-month high on Tuesday. The corn bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at $4.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $3.80. First resistance is seen at today's high of $3.93 1/4 and then at this week's high of $3.95 1/4. First support is seen at this week's low of $3.87 and then at $3.85. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

May soybeans closed down 17 1/2 cents at $10.31 a bushel today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a three- week low today. The bean bulls still have the overall near- term technical advantage, but are fading. The next near- term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the March high of $10.82 1/2. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.15. First resistance is seen at $10.40 and then at $10.50. First support is seen at $10.25 and then at $10.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

May soybean meal closed down $5.40 at $370.60 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The meal bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the recent selling pressure negated a price uptrend to suggest a market top is in place. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the March high of $404.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $350.00. First resistance comes in at $375.00 and then at today's high of $380.30. First support is seen at $365.00 and then at $360.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

May bean oil closed down 46 points at 31.72 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 33.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 31.61 cents. First resistance is seen at 32.00 cents and then at today's high of 32.37 cents. First support is seen at last week's low of 31.43 cents and then at 31.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

May Chicago SRW wheat closed up 3 1/4 cents at $4.89 1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The wheat bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have stabilized the recent selling. Now, a bullish pennant pattern or bullish falling wedge pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to push and close SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $5.18 1/2. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.70. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $4.98 and then at $5.00. First support is seen at this week's today's low of $4.83 and then at $4.79. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

May HRW wheat closed up 4 1/2 cents at $5.24 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Prices action has formed a bullish pennant pattern. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.75. The bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $5.33 1/4 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at this week's low of $5.13 and then at $5.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 14 points at 12.76 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering after hitting a contract and multi-year low on Tuesday. The sugar bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage, to suggest another leg down in prices. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 13.50 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 12.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 12.96 cents and then at 13.00 cents. First support is seen at the contract low of 12.53 cents and then at 12.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

 

May coffee closed down 60 points at 120.95 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The coffee bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 126.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 115.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 122.15 cents and then at the March high of 124.20 cents. First support is seen at the February low of 118.55 cents and then at 115.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

May cocoa closed up $16 at $2,548 a ton today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another 1.5-year high today. The cocoa bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an accelerating 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,750. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $2,331. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,581 and then at $2,600. First support is seen at today's low of $2,517 and then at $2,500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

 

May cotton closed up 1 point at 82.99 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The cotton bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 87.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 84.00 cents and then at 85.00 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 82.04 cents and then at 81.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

 

May orange juice closed up 155 points at $1.3955 today. Prices closed near the session high on short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at $1.4600. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the December low of $1.3345. First resistance is seen at $1.4000 and then at last week's high of $1.4335. First support is seen at the March low of $1.3785 and then at $1.3500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

May lumber futures closed down $0.10 at $485.10 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the recent selling pressure still suggests a market top is in place. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $450.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $500.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $492.70 and then at $495.00. First support is seen at $480.00 and then at the March low of $474.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $2.90 at $1,324.20 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The gold bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but need to show more power soon to keep it. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,350.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,330.50 and then at $1,335.00. First support is seen at $1,320.00 and then at last week's low of $1,313.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

 

May silver futures closed down $0.097 at $16.535 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $17.04 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $16.69 and then at $16.75. Next support is seen at last week's low of $16.33 and then at the March low of $16.16. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

 

May N.Y. copper closed up 200 points at 315.75 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a two-week high today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 325.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 304.65 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 319.20 cents and then at 322.50 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 312.65 cents and then at 310.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

*. ENERGIES: April Nymex crude oil closed up $0.03 at $60.74 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field as trading has been choppy and sideways recently. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is closing prices above resistance at the February high of $64.24. The next near- term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of $57.90. First resistance is seen at today's high of $61.33 and then at $62.00. First support is seen at the March low of $59.95 and then at $59.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

April heating oil closed up 23 points at $1.8762 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at the February low of $1.8097. First resistance lies at $1.9000 and then at last week's high of $1.9111. First support is seen at this week's low of $1.8375 and then at $1.8097. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 231 points at $1.9094 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $2.0122. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $1.8284. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1.9219 and then at last week's high of 1.9486. First support is seen 1.8800 and then at the March low of $1.8566. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

April natural gas closed down 6.3 cents at $2.723 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but just barely. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.90. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $2.565. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $2.811 and then at $2.85. First support is seen at $2.70 and then at $2.65. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

 

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed down 25 points at 1.2463 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 1.2658. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the March low of 1.2254. First resistance for the Euro lies at today's high of 1.2504 and then at the March high of 1.2547. Next support is seen at 1.2400 and then at last week's low of 1.2364. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

The June Japanese yen closed up 285 points at .94725 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at .97000. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at .92500. First resistance is seen at .95000 and then at .95475. First support is seen at today's low of .94305 and then at .94000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

The June Swiss franc closed down 14 points at 1.0669 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The Swissy bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. A four-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 1.0986. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen at 1.0700 and then at 1.0750. First support is seen at last week's low of 1.0583 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

The June Australian dollar closed up 8 points at .7879 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at the February high of .7985. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of .7716. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7921 and then at .7985. First support is seen at this week's low of .7850 and then at .7800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

 

The June Canadian dollar closed up 4 points at .7747 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at .7900. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at .7500. First resistance is seen at .7750 and then at .7800. Next support is seen at the March low of .7708 and then at .6650. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

The June British pound closed down 10 points at 1.4026 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A six-week- old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.4200. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the March low of 1.3779. First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.4057 and then at 1.4100. First support is seen at 1.3934 and then at 1.3900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

 

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 0.042 at 89.235 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 91.000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of 87.830. Next resistance lies at this week's high of 89.720 and then at 90.000. First support is seen at last week's low of 88.915 and then at 88.500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 22/32 at 144 26/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a five- week high on more short covering. The bond market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 141 14/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 147 even. First resistance is seen at today's high of 145 4/32 and then at 145 16/32. First support is seen at today's low of 144 3/32 and then at 143 13/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

June U.S. T Notes closed up 7.0 (32nds) at 120.17.5 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on more short covering. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 122.02.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at the contract low of 119.14.0. First resistance is seen at the March high of 120.23.0 and then at 120.28.0. First support is seen at today's low of 120.07.5 and then at 120.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

 

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: U.S. stock indexes closed lower today on profit taking from recent gains. Bulls are still in firm near-term technical control amid a general risk-on trader mentality in the world marketplace. The key economic data points of the day Wednesday were the U.S. producer price index and retail sales reports for February. PPI came in at up 0.2% overall, and up 0.2% on the core level, which excludes food and energy prices. Producer prices were up 2.8%, year-on-year. PPI was forecast to come in at up 0.1% from January. While the PPI data was just a bit hotter than expected, markets did not show a big reaction to the news. The U.S. consumer price index was reported on Tuesday and it was deemed tame. Meantime, U.S. retail sales in February were reported down 0.1% versus trade expectations for up 0.3%. That was the third month in a row for a decline in retail sales. World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. The world marketplace is still watching developments in the Trump administration after President Trump unceremoniously fired his secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, on Tuesday. The Trump administration turmoil is an unsettling element for the marketplace due to the uncertainty regarding what could happen next. In overnight news, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said in a speech in Frankfurt that the ECB is not yet prepared to exit its quantitative easing of monetary policy due to recent higher volatility in many markets, the potential for a world trade war and due to the recent strength in the Euro currency.

 

The March Nasdaq 100 stock index futures closed down 21.25 at 7,037.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit-taking from recent gains. Prices Tuesday hit a contract and record high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 7,500.00. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 6,800.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of 7,098.00 and then at the contract high of 7,188.50. First support is seen at 7,000.00 and then at 6,900.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

 

The March e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed down 20.25 at 2,748.25 today. Prices closed nearer the session low after hitting a five-week high on Tuesday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the contract high of 2,878.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of 2,647.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of 2,779.50 and then at this week's high of 2,802.50. First support is seen at 2,725.00 and then at 2,700.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.


Disclaimer

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IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.