Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - March 15, 2018

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

 

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $1.22 at 121.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The cattle market bulls and bears are on a level overall near- term technical playing field amid the recent choppy trading. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid resistance at the February high of $127.95. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $118.05. First resistance is seen at today's high of $123.82 and then at this week's high of $124.30. First support is seen at this week's low of $120.75 and then at $120.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May feeder cattle closed down $2.08 at $141.47 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a two-month low today. The feeder cattle market bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close prices above technical resistance at $148.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the December low of $139.20. First resistance is seen at $143.00 and then at today's high of $144.02. First support is seen at today's low of $140.97 and then at $140.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

April lean hogs closed down $1.15 at $65.72 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a 6.5-month low today. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to close prices above solid chart resistance at $70.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $65.05. First resistance is seen at today's high of $66.82 and then at $68.00. First support is seen at today's low of $65.67 and then at $65.05. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed down 1 3/4 cents at $3.86 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low on more mild profit taking after hitting a seven-month high on Tuesday. The corn bulls still have the firm overall near- term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at $4.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $3.80. First resistance is seen at today's high of $3.90 3/4 and then at this week's high of $3.95 1/4. First support is seen at today's low of $3.85 1/2 and then at $3.82. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

May soybeans closed up 8 3/4 cents at $10.41 a bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session high after hitting hit a three-week low early on today. The bean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and regained some momentum today. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the March high of $10.82 1/2. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.15 First resistance is seen at today's high of $10.46 1/4 and then at this week's high of $10.54. First support is seen at today's low of $10.27 and then at $10.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

May soybean meal closed up $0.60 at $371.20 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The meal bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the recent selling pressure negated a price uptrend to suggest a market top is in place. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the March high of $404.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $350.00. First resistance comes in at $375.00 and then at this week's high of $380.30. First support is seen at $370.00 and then at $365.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

May bean oil closed up 34 points at 32.06 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 33.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 31.61 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 32.37 cents and then at 32.50 cents. First support is seen at 31.75 cents and then at last week's low of 31.43 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 9 1/4 cents at $4.79 1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a two- week low today. Prices also scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. The wheat bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but faded today and need to show fresh power soon to keep their edge. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $5.18 1/2. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.55. First resistance is seen at $4.85 and then at $4.90. First support is seen at today's low of $4.76 and then at $4.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

May HRW wheat closed down 11 cents at $5.13 3/4 today. Prices closed near the session low today and scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading and need to show fresh power soon to keep their chart edge. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $5.48 1/2. The bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.25 and then at this week's high of $5.33 1/4. First support is seen at this week's low of $5.13 and then at $5.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed down 2 points at 12.74 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Prices hit a contract and multi-year low on Tuesday. The sugar bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage, to suggest another leg down in prices. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 13.50 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 12.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 12.96 cents and then at 13.00 cents. First support is seen at the contract low of 12.53 cents and then at 12.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

 

May coffee closed down 225 points at 118.80 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a contract low today. The coffee bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 124.20 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 110.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 120.00 cents and then at this week's high of 122.15 cents. First support is seen at today's contract low of 117.50 cents and then at 115.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

 

May cocoa closed down $24 at $2,532 a ton today. Prices closed nearer the session low on mild profit taking after hitting a 1.5-year high on Wednesday. The cocoa bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,750. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $2,331. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $2,581 and then at $2,600. First support is seen at today's low of $2,509 and then at $2,500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

 

May cotton closed up 39 points at 83.82 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today. The cotton bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 87.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 84.21 cents and then at 85.00 cents. First support is seen at 83.00 cents and then at this week's low of 82.04 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

 

May orange juice closed down 75 points at $1.3865 today. Prices closed near mid-range. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at $1.4600. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the December low of $1.3345. First resistance is seen at $1.4000 and then at last week's high of $1.4335. First support is seen at the March low of $1.3785 and then at $1.3500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

May lumber futures closed down $0.20 at $484.20 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the recent selling pressure still suggests a market top is in place. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $450.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $500.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $492.70 and then at $495.00. First support is seen at $480.00 and then at today's low of $477.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $9.60 at $1,315.90 today. Prices closed near the session low and closed at a two-week low close today. The gold bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the March high of $1,342.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at $1,320.00 and then at $1,325.00. First support is seen at last week's low of $1,313.20 and then at $1,309.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May silver futures closed down $0.147 at $16.39 today. Prices closed near the session low and closed at a two-week low close today. The silver bears have the overall near- term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $16.895 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $16.58 and then at this week's high of $16.69. Next support is seen at last week's low of $16.33 and then at the March low of $16.16. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

May N.Y. copper closed down 325 points at 312.55 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 325.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 304.65 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 316.60 cents and then at this week's high of 319.20 cents. First support is seen at 310.00 cents and then at the March low of 305.55 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

*. ENERGIES: April Nymex crude oil closed up $0.28 at $61.26 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field as trading has been choppy and sideways recently. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is closing prices above resistance at the February high of $64.24. The next near- term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of $57.90. First resistance is seen at today's high of $61.54 and then at $62.00. First support is seen at today's low of $60.82 and then at the March low of $59.95. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

April heating oil closed up 70 points at $1.8941 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at the February low of $1.8097. First resistance lies at $1.9000 and then at last week's high of $1.9111. First support is seen at $1.8657 and then at this week's low of $1.8375. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 43 points at $1.9286 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $2.0122. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $1.8284. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1.9371 and then at last week's high of 1.9486. First support is seen 1.9000 and then at $1.8800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

April natural gas closed down 5.7 cents at $2.674 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. A four- week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart was negated today. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.90. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $2.565. First resistance is seen at $2.70 and then at today's high of $2.75. First support is seen at today's low of $2.666 and then at $2.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed down 57 points at 1.2410 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 1.2658. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the March low of 1.2254. First resistance for the Euro lies at today's high of 1.2474 and then at this week's high of 1.2504. Next support is seen at last week's low of 1.2364 and then at 1.2317. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

The June Japanese yen closed up 25 points at .94775 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at .97000. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at .92500. First resistance is seen at today's high of .95160 and then at .95485. First support is seen at .94300 and then at .94000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

The June Swiss franc closed down 64 points at 1.0612 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The Swissy bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, a four-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 1.0986. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen at 1.0650 and then at 1.0700. First support is seen at last week's low of 1.0583 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

The June Australian dollar closed down 76 points at .7811 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at the February high of .7985. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of .7716. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7889 and then at this week's high of .7921. First support is seen at .7800 and then at .7750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

The June Canadian dollar closed down 60 points at .7681 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit an 11- month low today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at .7900. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at .7500. First resistance is seen at .7700 and then at today's high of .7739. Next support is seen at today's low of .7669 and then at .7650. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

The June British pound closed down 20 points at 1.4014 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A six-week- old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.4200. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the March low of 1.3779. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 1.4057 and then at 1.4100. First support is seen at 1.3934 and then at 1.3900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

 

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 0.358 at 89.585 today. Prices closed near the session high today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid recent choppy trading. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 91.000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of 87.830. Next resistance lies at this week's high of 89.720 and then at 90.000. First support is seen at last week's low of 88.915 and then at 88.500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 4/32 at 144 22/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on mild profit taking after hitting a five-week high early on. The bond market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls have momentum on their side to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 141 14/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 148 even. First resistance is seen at today's high of 145 8/32 and then at 146 even. First support is seen at 144 3/32 and then at 143 13/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

June U.S. T Notes closed down 3.5 (32nds) at 120.14.0 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit taking from recent gains. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 122.02.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at the contract low of 119.14.0. First resistance is seen at the March high of 120.23.0 and then at 120.28.0. First support is seen at Wednesday's low of 120.07.5 and then at 120.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

 

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: U.S. stock indexes closed mixed today. World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. The world stock markets are presently looking past big speedbumps of a potential global trade war and perceived turmoil in the Trump Administration. Reports overnight said the Trump administration is set to soon unveil more trade restrictions on China, after the U.S. has concluded China has been unfairly coercing U.S. firms to transfer their technology to China for years. This could become a major element in the world marketplace if the two largest world economies engage in a tit-for-tat trade war. The key "outside markets" on Thursday saw the U.S. dollar index higher. Trading in the USDX has been choppy and sideways recently. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices were firmer. The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that increasing world oil demand will offset the rise in U.S. shale-oil production, to keep the world supply and demand situation in balance.

 

The March Nasdaq 100 stock index futures closed up 3.00 at 7,036.50 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Prices Tuesday hit a contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 7,500.00. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 6,800.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of 7,098.00 and then at the contract high of 7,188.50. First support is seen at 7,000.00 and then at 6,900.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

 

The March e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed down 0.50 at 2,749.00 today. Prices closed near mid-range. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the contract high of 2,878.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of 2,647.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of 2,779.50 and then at this week's high of 2,802.50. First support is seen at 2,725.00 and then at 2,700.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.


Disclaimer

Need to re-examine my welcome letter to all new customers and an explanation of my Market Rating System, just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll get those attachments emailed right back to you.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.