Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - March 20, 2018

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

 

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.37 at 119.85 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another two-month low today. The cattle market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid resistance at last week's high of $124.30. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $118.05. First resistance is seen at today's high of $120.82 and then at this week's high of $121.80. First support is seen at today's low of $119.32 and then at $118.05. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

 

May feeder cattle closed down $0.62 at $138.40 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another nearly seven- month low today. The feeder cattle market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close prices above technical resistance at $145.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the August low of $134.10. First resistance is seen at $140.00 and then at this week's high of $141.65. First support is seen at today's low of $137.40 and then at $136.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

April lean hogs closed down $0.05 at $63.10 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another contract low today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. However, the market is now well oversold and due for at least a corrective bounce very soon. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to close prices above solid chart resistance at $67.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at $64.00 and then at $65.00. First support is seen at today's contract low of $62.82 and then at $62.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

 

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed 1/4 cent at $3.74 3/4 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a three-week low early on today. The corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, the bears still have momentum on their side. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at $3.88. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $3.65. First resistance is seen at today's high of $3.77 and then at $3.80. First support is seen at today's low of $3.73 1/4 and then at $3.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May soybeans closed up 5 1/4 cents at $10.27 3/4 a bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering after hitting a five-week low Monday. Serious near-term technical damage has been inflicted, as a bearish V-Top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart, to suggest a market top is in place. The bean bulls and bears are now on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at last week's high of $10.54. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at $10.40 and then at this week's high of $10.45 1/2. First support is seen at this week's low of $10.21 3/4 and then at $10.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May soybean meal closed up $2.30 at $360.90 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a five-week low early on today. The meal bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $380.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $340.00. First resistance comes in at $365.00 and then at $370.00. First support is seen at today's low of $358.00 and then at $355.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May bean oil closed down 32 points at 31.74 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 33.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 31.43 cents. First resistance is seen at 32.00 cents and then at last week's high of 32.37 cents. First support is seen at 31.43 cents and then at 31.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

May Chicago SRW wheat closed up 2 1/2 cents at $4.53 1/4 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another seven- week low today. The wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid the recent price downdraft. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close SRW prices above solid technical resistance at $4.85. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of $4.23 3/4. First resistance is seen at $4.60 and then at this week's high of $4.66. First support is seen at today's low of $4.50 and then at $4.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

May HRW wheat closed steady at $4.70 1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another seven-week low today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid the recent strong selling pressure. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.00. The bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.45. First resistance is seen at $4.80 and then at $4.90. First support is seen at today's low of $4.67 and then at $4.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed down 18 points at 12.71 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Price action Monday scored a bullish "key reversal" up on the daily bar chart after hitting a contract and multi-year low early on. Monday's reversal is a chart clue that a market bottom is now in place. However, the bulls need to step up and show more power soon or the key reversal will quickly become moot. Right now the sugar bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 13.50 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 12.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 12.91 cents and then at 13.11 cents. First support is seen at today' low of 12.60 cents and then at 12.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

 

May coffee closed down 15 points at 119.20 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range. Prices hit a contract low last Friday. The coffee bears have the solid overall near- term technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 124.20 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 110.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today's high of 120.05 cents and then at last week's high of 122.15 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 118.00 cents and then at the contract low of 116.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

May cocoa closed up $46 at $2,491 a ton today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The cocoa bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and regained some momentum today. Prices are in a nearly three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,700. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,331. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,516 and then at $2,550. First support is seen at today's low of $2,430 and then at $2,400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

 

May cotton closed up 177 points at 83.01 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high after hitting a three-week low early on today. The cotton bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and regained momentum today. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the March high of 86.60 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 83.35 cents and then at 84.00 cents. First support is seen at 82.00 cents and then at today's low of 80.95 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

 

May orange juice closed down 50 points at $1.3750 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a nine-week low today. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at $1.4600. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the December low of $1.3345. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1.3865 and then at $1.4000. First support is seen at today's low of $1.3705 and then at $1.3500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

 

May lumber futures closed up $2.40 at $489.00 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the recent selling pressure still suggests a market top is in place. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $450.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $500.00. First resistance is seen at last week's high of $496.00 and then at $500.00. First support is seen at this week's low of $484.50 and then at $480.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $7.20 at $1,310.60 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a three-week low today. The gold bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the March high of $1,342.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at last $1,320.00 and then at $1,325.00. First support is seen at today's low of $1,306.60 and then at the March low of $1,303.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

 

May silver futures closed down $0.165 at $16.16 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a three- month low. The silver bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $16.895 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $16.345 and then at $16.50. Next support is seen at today's low of $16.10 and then at $16.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

 

May N.Y. copper closed down 390 points at 304.30 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a three-month low. The copper bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week- old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 320.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 300.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 309.40 cents and then this week's high of at 311.55 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 302.90 cents and then at 300.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

*. ENERGIES: May Nymex crude oil closed up $1.28 at $63.41 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a three-week high today. The bulls have regained the overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is closing prices above resistance at the February high of $64.07. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the March low of $59.91. First resistance is seen at $64.07 and then at $64.50. First support is seen at $63.00 and then at today's low of $62.13. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

May heating oil closed up 322 points at $1.9438 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a three-week high today. The bulls have regained the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $2.0895. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at the February low of $1.8093. First resistance lies at today's high of $1.9619 and then at the March high of $1.9931. First support is seen at today's low of $1.9144 and then at $1.9000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

May (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 359 points at $1.9734 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a three-week high today. The bulls have regained the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.0236. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the March low of $1.8719. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1.9881 and then at $2.0000. First support is seen 1.9500 and then at this week's low of $1.9321. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

May natural gas closed up 3.5 cents at $2.713 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering after hitting a three-week low on Monday. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.90. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $2.600. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $2.736 and then at $2.75. First support is seen at this week's low of $2.668 and then at $2.65. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed down 98 points at 1.2345 today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a three-week low. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but trading has been choppy. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 1.2658. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the March low of 1.2254. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.2400 and then at this week's high of 1.2445. Next support is seen at 1.2300 and then at 1.2254. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

The June Japanese yen closed down 425 points at .94550 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at .97000. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at .93500. First resistance is seen at today's high of .94985 and then at last week's high of .95305. First support is seen at today's low of .94375 and then at .94000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

The June Swiss franc closed down 64 points at 1.0551 today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a two- month low. The Swissy bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0800. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0400. First resistance is seen at 1.0600 and then at this week's high of 1.0617. First support is seen at today's low of 1.0545 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

 

The June Australian dollar closed down 42 points at .7683 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a three-month low today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at the March high of .7921. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of .7501. First resistance is seen at this week's high of .7729 and then at .7800. First support is seen at .7650 and then at .7600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

The June Canadian dollar closed down 15 points at .7658 today. Prices closed near mid-range. Prices Monday hit an 11-month low. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at .7850. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at .7500. First resistance is seen at this week's high of .7678 and then at .7700. Next support is seen at this week's low of .7633 and then at .7600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

The June British pound closed down 53 points at 1.4054 today. Prices closed nearer the session low on profit taking after hitting a five-week high Monday. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A three- week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.4300. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the March low of 1.3779. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 1.4146 and then at 1.4200. First support is seen at 1.4000 and then at today's low of 1.3970. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 0.623 at 89.955 today. Prices closed near the session high today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid recent choppy trading. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 91.000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of 87.830. Next resistance lies at the March high of 90.490 and then at 90.750. First support is seen at this week's low of 89.320 and then at 89.000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

 

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 23/32 at 143 26/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bond market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained downside momentum this week. Prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but just barely. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 141 14/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 147 even. First resistance is seen at today's high of 144 14/32 and then at this week's high of 144 24/32. First support is seen at today's low of 143 21/32 and then at 143 13/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

June U.S. T Notes closed down 10.0 (32nds) at 120.02.5 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 122.02.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at the contract low of 119.14.0. First resistance is seen at today's high of 120.11.0 and then at this week's high of 120.16.0. First support is seen at 120.00.0 and then at 119.26.5. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

 

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: U.S. stock indexes closed narrowly mixed today. The marketplace is awaiting the major economic data point of the week, on Wednesday afternoon. The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) that began Tuesday morning ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also holds his first press conference after the meeting. Most expect the Fed to slightly raise U.S. interest rates at this week's meeting. The Bank of England holds its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. World stock markets were mixed today. U.S. stock indexes were mixed at midday. Technology sectors in world stock markets are under pressure early this week after Facebook gave consumer data to a firm involved with the Trump presidential campaign. The worries are that governments will slap restrictions on social media and their gathering of consumer data. Any strong selling pressure in the stock markets this week could work to the benefit of the safe-haven gold and silver markets. The key "outside markets" on Tuesday morning saw the U.S. dollar index sharply higher. Still, trading in the USDX has been choppy and sideways recently. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices were solidly higher and hit a two-week high. Oil prices are in a near-term uptrend on the daily chart, which is a positive element for the precious metals markets.

 

The March Nasdaq 100 stock index futures closed down 3.00 at 6,911.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded this week. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the contract high of 7,214.50. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of 6,676.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of 6,927.75 and then at 6,950.00. First support is seen at today's low of 6,863.00 and then at this week's low of 6,821.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

The March e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed steady at 2,722.75 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded this week. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the March high of 2,807.25. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of 2,647.00. First resistance is seen at 2,735.00 and then at this week's high of 2,756.50. First support is seen at this week's low of 2,697.25 and then at 2,686.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.


Disclaimer

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IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.