Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - March 21, 2018

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

 

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $1.80 at 117.77 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a six- month low today. The cattle market bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an accelerating four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid resistance at $122.50. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August 2017 low of $110.35. First resistance is seen at $119.00 and then at today's high of $119.75. First support is seen at today's low of $117.15 and then at $116.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

May feeder cattle closed down $0.92 at $137.32 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another nearly seven- month low today. The feeder cattle market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close prices above technical resistance at $145.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the August low of $134.10. First resistance is seen at today's high of $138.75 and then at $140.00. First support is seen at today's low of $136.40 and then at $135.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

April lean hogs closed down $0.55 at $62.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another contract low today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. However, the market is now well oversold and due for at least a corrective bounce very soon. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to close prices above solid chart resistance at $67.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at $64.00 and then at $65.00. First support is seen at today's contract low of $62.52 and then at $62.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

 

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed up 1/2 cent at $3.75 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, the bears still have some momentum on their side. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at $3.88. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $3.65. First resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of $3.77 and then at $3.80. First support is seen at this week's low of $3.73 1/4 and then at $3.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May soybeans closed up 1 1/2 cents at $10.29 3/4 a bushel today. Prices closed near mid-range on tepid short covering. Serious near-term technical damage has been inflicted recently, as a bearish V-Top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart, to suggest a market top is in place. The bean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at last week's high of $10.54. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $10.37 1/4 and then at this week's high of $10.45 1/2. First support is seen at this week's low of $10.21 3/4 and then at $10.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May soybean meal closed up $3.20 at $364.90 today. Prices closed near mid-range on short covering. The meal bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $380.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $340.00. First resistance comes in at today's high of $368.80 and then at $370.00. First support is seen at today's low of $361.20 and then at this week's low of $358.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May bean oil closed up 62 points at 32.36 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on heavy short covering. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 33.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 31.43 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 32.50 cents and then at 32.96 cents. First support is seen at 32.00 cents and then at today's low of 31.62 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

May Chicago SRW wheat closed up 1 1/4 cents at $4.54 1/4 today. Prices closed near the session high and hit another seven-week low early on today. The wheat bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid the recent price downdraft. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close SRW prices above solid technical resistance at $4.85. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of $4.23 3/4. First resistance is seen at $4.57 1/2 and then at this week's high of $4.66. First support is seen at today's low of $4.46 3/4 and then at $4.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

May HRW wheat closed down 3 1/4 cents at $4.66 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit another seven-week low early on today. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid the recent strong selling pressure. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.00. The bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.45. First resistance is seen at today's high of $4.70 1/4 and then at $4.80. First support is seen at today's low of $4.58 1/4 and then at $4.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 11 points at 12.67 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today on short covering. Price action Monday scored a bullish "key reversal" up on the daily bar chart after hitting a contract and multi-year low early on. Monday's reversal is a chart clue that a market bottom is now in place. However, the bulls need to step up and show more power soon or the key reversal will quickly become moot. Right now the sugar bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 13.50 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 12.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 12.91 cents and then at 13.11 cents. First support is seen at 12.60 cents and then at 12.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

 

May coffee closed down 5 points at 118.90 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Prices hit a contract low last Friday. The coffee bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 124.20 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 110.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today's high of 120.75 cents and then at last week's high of 122.15 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 118.00 cents and then at the contract low of 116.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

May cocoa closed up $59 at $2,539 a ton today. Prices closed near the session high today. The cocoa bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more momentum today. Prices are in a nearly three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,700. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,331. First resistance is seen at $2,550 and then at the March high of $2,581. First support is seen at $2,500 and then at today's low of $2,472. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

 

May cotton closed down 49 points at 82.59 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low on profit taking from Tuesday's solid gains. The cotton bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the March high of 86.60 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 83.86 cents and then at 84.21 cents. First support is seen at 82.00 cents and then at this week's low of 80.95 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

 

May orange juice closed down 25 points at $1.3715 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another nine- week low today. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at $1.4600. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the December low of $1.3345. First resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of $1.3865 and then at $1.4000. First support is seen at today's low of $1.3700 and then at $1.3500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

 

May lumber futures closed down $6.90 at $482.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the recent selling pressure still suggests a market top is in place. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $450.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $500.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $489.60 and then at last week's high of $496.00. First support is seen at $480.00 and then at $477.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

*. METALS: April gold futures were trading up $11.90 at $1,323.90 in afternoon dealings today. Prices were nearer the session high on short covering and bargain hunting following recent selling pressure. The gold bulls and bears are now back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the March high of $1,342.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,328.00 and then at last week's high of $1,330.50. First support is seen at $1,309.90 and then at this week's low of $1,306.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May silver futures were up $0.32 at $16.50 today. Prices were nearer the session high on short covering and bargain hunting. The silver bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $16.895 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at $16.69 and then at the March high of $16.895. Next support is seen at $16.25 and then at this week's low of $16.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

May N.Y. copper closed up 315 points at 306.95 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering after hitting a three-month low early on today. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 320.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 300.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of 309.40 cents and then this week's high of at 311.55 cents. First support is seen at 305.00 cents and then at today's low of 301.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

*. ENERGIES: May Nymex crude oil closed up $1.73 at $65.27 today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a six- week high today. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is closing prices above resistance at the January high of $66.02. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at this week's low of $61.45. First resistance is seen at $66.02 and then at $66.50. First support is seen at $65.00 and then at $64.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

 

May heating oil closed up 598 points at $2.0128 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a six-week high today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $2.0895. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at the March low of $1.8442. First resistance lies at today's high of $2.0149 and then at $2.05001. First support is seen at $1.9700 and then at $1.9500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

 

May (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 471 points at $2.0222 today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a six-week high today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $2.1012. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at $1.9200. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2.0245 and then at $2.0500. First support is seen 2.0000 and then at Tuesday's low of $1.9650. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

May natural gas closed down 3.1 cents at $2.673 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a four-week low today. Prices also scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $2.831. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $2.600. First resistance is seen at $2.70 and then at this week's high of $2.736. First support is seen at $2.65 and then at $2.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed up 76 points at 1.2410 today. Prices closed near the session high today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but trading has been choppy. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 1.2658. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the March low of 1.2254. First resistance for the Euro lies at this week's high of 1.2445 and then at 1.2500. Next support is seen at this week's low of 1.2323 and then at 1.2300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

The June Japanese yen closed up 400 points at .94920 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at .97000. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at .93500. First resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of .94985 and then at last week's high of .95305. First support is seen at today's low of .94335 and then at .94000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

The June Swiss franc closed up 62 points at 1.0610 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering after hitting a two-month low on Tuesday. The Swissy bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0800. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0400. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 1.0617 and then at 1.0650. First support is seen at this week's low of 1.0545 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

 

The June Australian dollar closed up 93 points at .7778 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering after hitting a three-month low early on today. Prices also scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at the March high of .7921. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of .7501. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7782 and then at .7800. First support is seen at .7700 and then at today's low of .7674. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

 

The June Canadian dollar closed up 110 points at .7768 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering. Prices Monday hit an 11-month low. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at .7850. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at .7500. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7769 and then at .7800. Next support is seen at .7700 and then at this week's low of .7633. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

The June British pound closed up 145 points at 1.4201 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a five-week high today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A three-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.4300. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the March low of 1.3779. First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.4203 and then at 1.4300. First support is seen at 1.4100 and then at today's low of 1.4053. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

 

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 0.679 at 89.275 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid recent choppy trading. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 91.000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of 87.830. Next resistance lies at 89.500 and then at this week's high of 90.025. First support is seen at 89.000 and then at 88.915. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 10/32 at 143 24/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering. The bond market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 141 14/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 147 even. First resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of 144 14/32 and then at this week's high of 144 24/32. First support is seen at today's low of 142 30/32 and then at 142 20/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

June U.S. T Notes closed up 3.0 (32nds) at 120.02.0 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Short covering was featured. The bears still have the firm overall near- term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 122.02.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at the contract low of 119.14.0. First resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of 120.11.0 and then at this week's high of 120.16.0. First support is seen at 119.30.0 and then at today's low of 119.22.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

 

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: U.S. stock indexes closed weaker today. The major U.S. economic data point of the week saw the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) raise interest rates by 0.25%, to a range of 1.5% to 1.75. The rate hike was fully expected by the marketplace. The FOMC signaled that three interest rate hikes will likely occur in 2018, but a total of four cannot be ruled out. The FOMC statement did not suggest inflation is becoming a problem. The Fed also thinks three interest rate increases are in the cards for 2019 and two more in 2020-to then bring the Federal funds rate into a range of 3.25% and 3.5%. Early readings on the FOMC statement are that the FOMC members were just a bit more hawkish on U.S. monetary policy than expected. But ideas are mixed on that matter. The U.S. dollar index weakened further after the FOMC statement. The Bank of England holds its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The other key "outside market" on Wednesday saw Nymex crude oil prices solidly higher and hit a six-week high. Oil prices are in an accelerating near- term uptrend on the daily chart. That's also a bullish development for the precious metals markets.

 

The March Nasdaq 100 stock index futures closed down 38.25 at 6,880.00 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded this week. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the contract high of 7,214.50. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of 6,676.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of 6,951.00 and then at 7,000.00. First support is seen at today's low of 6,842.25 and then at this week's low of 6,821.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

The March e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed down 6.75 at 2,717.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded this week. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the March high of 2,807.25. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of 2,647.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of 2,744.00 and then at this week's high of 2,756.50. First support is seen at this week's low of 2,697.25 and then at 2,686.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.


Disclaimer

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IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.