Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - March 22, 2018

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

 

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $0.62 at 118.32 today. Prices closed near the session high on short covering. Prices Wednesday hit a six-month low. The cattle market bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an accelerating four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid resistance at $122.50. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August 2017 low of $110.35. First resistance is seen at $119.00 and then at $119.75. First support is seen at this week's low of $117.15 and then at $116.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

May feeder cattle closed up $1.57 at $138.52 today. Prices closed near the session high on short covering after hitting a nearly seven-month low Wednesday. The feeder cattle market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close prices above technical resistance at $145.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the August low of $134.10. First resistance is seen at $139.00 and then at $140.00. First support is seen at today's low of $136.40 and then at $135.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

 

April lean hogs closed down $1.55 at $61.02 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another contract low today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. However, the market is well oversold and due for at least a corrective bounce very soon. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to close prices above solid chart resistance at this week's high of $65.25. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $58.00. First resistance is seen at $62.00 and then at today's high of $62.72. First support is seen at today's contract low of $60.85 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

 

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed up 1/2 cent at $3.75 1/2 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at $3.88. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $3.65. First resistance is seen at today's high of $3.77 1/2 and then at $3.80. First support is seen at this week's low of $3.73 1/4 and then at $3.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May soybeans closed down 3/4 cent at $10.29 a bushel today. Prices closed near mid-range. Serious near-term technical damage has been inflicted recently, as a bearish V-Top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart, to suggest a market top is in place. The bean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at last week's high of $10.54. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at $10.37 1/4 and then at this week's high of $10.45 1/2. First support is seen at this week's low of $10.21 3/4 and then at $10.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May soybean meal closed up $4.00 at $368.50 today. Prices closed near the session high on more short covering. The meal bulls have regained the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $380.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $350.00. First resistance comes in at $370.00 and then at $375.00. First support is seen at today's low of $365.00 and then at $361.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

 

May bean oil closed down 48 points at 31.89 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 33.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 31.43 cents. First resistance is seen at 32.25 cents and then at this week's high of 32.50 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 31.71 cents and then at this week's low of 31.52 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

May Chicago SRW wheat closed up 3 cents at $4.56 1/2 today. Prices closed near mid-range on short covering. The wheat bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid the recent price downdraft. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close SRW prices above solid technical resistance at $4.85. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of $4.23 3/4. First resistance is seen at $4.60 and then at this week's high of $4.66. First support is seen at today's low of $4.51 1/4 and then at this week's low of $4.46 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

May HRW wheat closed up 6 3/4 cents at $4.72 1/4 today. Prices closed near mid-range on short covering. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid the recent strong selling pressure. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.00. The bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.45. First resistance is seen at today's high of $4.75 and then at $4.80. First support is seen at this week's low of $4.58 1/4 and then at $4.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 10 points at 12.77 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on tepid short covering. The sugar bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 13.50 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to close prices below solid technical support at 12.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 12.91 cents and then at 13.11 cents. First support is seen at 12.60 cents and then at 12.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

 

May coffee closed up 15 points at 119.00 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range. The coffee bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 124.20 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 110.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 120.75 cents and then at last week's high of 122.15 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 118.00 cents and then at the contract low of 116.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

May cocoa closed up $6 at $2,530 a ton today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The cocoa bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nearly three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,700. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,331. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,567 and then at the March high of $2,581. First support is seen at $2,500 and then at $2,472. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

 

May cotton closed down 23 points at 82.37 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range on more profit taking. The cotton bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the March high of 86.60 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 83.86 cents and then at 84.21 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 81.77 cents and then at this week's low of 80.95 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

May orange juice closed down 115 points at $1.3600 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another nine- week low today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at $1.4600. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the December low of $1.3345. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1.3725 and then at $1.4000. First support is seen at today's low of $1.3585 and then at $1.3345. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

 

May lumber futures closed up $2.70 at $485.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the recent selling pressure still suggests a market top is in place. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $450.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $500.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of $489.60 and then at last week's high of $496.00. First support is seen at $480.00 and then at $477.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

*. METALS: April gold futures closed up $5.20 at $1,326.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The gold bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,350.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $1,336.90 and then at the March high of $1,342.00. First support is seen at $1,320.00 and then at $1,310.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May silver futures closed down $0.034 at $16.385 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $16.895 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at $16.50 and then at this week's high of $16.665. Next support is seen at $16.25 and then at this week's low of $16.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

May N.Y. copper closed down 355 points at 302.35 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a three-month low. The copper bears have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantageg. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 315.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 295.85 cents. First resistance is seen at 305.00 cents and 309.40 cents. First support is seen at 300.00 cents and then at 297.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

 

*. ENERGIES: May Nymex crude oil closed down $0.76 at $64.42 today. Prices closed nearer the session low on profit taking after hitting a six-week high early on today. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is closing prices above resistance at the January high of $66.02. The next near- term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at this week's low of $61.45. First resistance is seen at $65.00 and then at today's high of $65.74. First support is seen at $64.00 and then at $63.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

May heating oil closed down 109 points at $1.9965 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another six-week high early on today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $2.0895. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at the March low of $1.8442. First resistance lies at today's high of $2.0192 and then at $2.0500. First support is seen at $1.9700 and then at $1.9500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

May (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 65 points at $2.0157 today. Prices closed near the session high today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $2.1012. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at $1.9200. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $2.0245 and then at $2.0500. First support is seen at today's low of 1.9978 and then at $1.9650. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

May natural gas closed down 0.7 cents at $2.66 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another four- week low today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $2.831. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $2.600. First resistance is seen at $2.70 and then at this week's high of $2.736. First support is seen at $2.60 and then at $2.55. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed down 24 points at 1.2387 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but trading has been choppy. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 1.2658. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the March low of 1.2254. First resistance for the Euro lies at today's high of 1.2467 and then at 1.2500. Next support is seen at this week's low of 1.2323 and then at 1.2300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

The June Japanese yen closed up 325 points at .95125 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5- month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at .98000. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at .93500. First resistance is seen at the March high of .95685 and then at .97000. First support is seen at today's low of .94820 and then at this week's low of .94335. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

 

The June Swiss franc closed down 1 point at 1.0599 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The Swissy bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A five- week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0800. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0400. First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.0647 and then at 1.0700. First support is seen at this week's low of 1.0545 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

 

The June Australian dollar closed down 33 points at .7724 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at the March high of .7921. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of .7501. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7788 and then at .7850. First support is seen at this week's low of .7674 and then at .7600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

 

The June Canadian dollar closed up 15 points at .7767 today. Prices closed near mid-range on more short covering. Prices Monday hit an 11-month low. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'

next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at .7850. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at .7500. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7806 and then at .7826. Next support is seen at today's low of .7742 and then at .7700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

The June British pound closed down 23 points at 1.4161 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a five- week high early on today. The bulls have the overall near- term technical advantage. A three-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.4300. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the March low of 1.3779. First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.4272 and then at 1.4300. First support is seen at 1.4100 and then at today's low of 1.4053. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

 

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 0.096 at 89.465 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid recent choppy trading. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 91.000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of 87.830. Next resistance lies at today's high of 89.575 and then at this week's high of 90.025. First support is seen at today's low of 88.990 and then at 88.500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 1 2/32 at 144 18/32 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a six-week high, on more short covering. The bond market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 141 14/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 147 even. First resistance is seen at today's high of 145 16/32 and then at 146 even. First support is seen at today's low of 143 22/32 and then at this week's low of 142 30/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

 

June U.S. T Notes closed up 16.5 (32nds) at 120.15.0 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a six-week high today. More short covering was featured. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 122.02.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at the contract low of 119.14.0. First resistance is seen at today's high of 120.25.0 and then at 121.00.0. First support is seen at today's low of 120.03.0 and then at 119.30.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: U.S. stock indexes closed sharply lower today, in part due to the U.S. slapping new trade sanctions on China. The key "outside markets" on Thursday saw the U.S. dollar index slightly higher on a corrective bounce after hitting a two-week low overnight. Trading in the USDX has been choppy. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices were lower on profit taking from this week's strong gains that saw prices hit a seven-week high on Wednesday.

 

The March Nasdaq 100 stock index futures closed down 188.00 at 6,696.00 today. Prices closed near the session low and closed at a five-week low close today. Bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 7,000.00. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 6,500.00. First resistance is seen at 6,750.00 and then at 6,800.00. First support is seen at the March low of 6,676.00 and then at 6,750.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

The March e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed down 71.50 at 2,646.75 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a five-week low today. Bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at this week's high of 2,756.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at 2,600.00. First resistance is seen at 2,675.00 and then at 2,700.00. First support is seen at today's low of 2,641.75 and then at 2,625.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.


Disclaimer

Need to re-examine my welcome letter to all new customers and an explanation of my Market Rating System, just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll get those attachments emailed right back to you.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.