Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - March 7, 2018

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

 

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $0.32 at 123.12 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The cattle market bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded and need to show more power soon to keep their edge. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid resistance at the February high of $127.95. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $120.00. First resistance is seen at $124.00 and then at this week's high of $124.82. First support is seen at last week's low of $121.90 and then at $121.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

 

May feeder cattle closed down $0.05 at $146.97 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The feeder cattle market bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field, but the bulls are fading. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close prices above technical resistance at the February high of $153.55. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $143.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $147.95 and then at this week's high of $148.97. First support is seen at $146.00 and then at this week's low of $145.52. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

April lean hogs closed down $0.20 at $67.95 today. Prices closed nearer the session high after hitting a six-month low early on. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to close prices above solid chart resistance at $72.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $65.05. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $69.32 and then at $70.00. First support is seen at $67.00 and then at today's low of $66.42. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

 

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed down 1 cent at $3.86 3/4 today. Prices closed near the session low on mild profit taking after hitting a six-month high early on today. The corn bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at $4.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $3.75. First resistance is seen at today's high of $3.89 and then at $3.92. First support is seen at this week's low of $3.84 and then at $3.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

May soybeans closed down 11 1/4 cents at $10.63 1/2 a bushel today. Prices closed near the session low on more profit taking. The bean bulls still have the solid near- term technical advantage as a steep two-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.50. First resistance is seen at $10.75 and then at the contract high of $10.82 1/2. First support is seen at $10.60 and then at $10.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

 

May soybean meal closed down $5.30 at $382.60 today. Prices closed near the session low today on more profit taking. The meal bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $415.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $375.00. First resistance comes in at $390.00 and then at this week's high of $396.10. First support is seen at $380.00 and then at $375.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

May bean oil closed down 42 points at 32.07 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 33.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 31.61 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 32.58 cents and then at last week's high of 32.96 cents. First support is seen at last week's low of 31.93 cents and then at 31.61 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 9 3/4 cents at $4.97 1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low on profit taking from recent gains. The wheat bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to push and close SRW prices above solid technical resistance at $5.25. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at $5.00 and then at this week's high of $5.10 1/2. First support is seen at this week's low of $4.95 1/4 and then at $4.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

 

May HRW wheat closed down 7 1/4 cents at $5.34 1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit taking. The bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.75. The bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.40 and then at last week's high of $5.48 1/2. First support is seen at this week's low of $5.29 3/4 and then at $5.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed down 66 points at 12.79 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a contract and multi-year low. The sugar bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and regained full power today, to suggest another leg down in prices. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 14.02 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 12.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 13.00 cents and then at 13.25 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 12.76 cents and then at 12.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

 

May coffee closed down 50 points at 120.75 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range. The coffee bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 126.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 115.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 122.30 cents and then at last week's high of 124.20 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 123.50 cents and then at the February low of 118.55 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

May cocoa closed down $2 at $2,439 a ton today. Prices closed nearer the session low on mild profit taking after hitting a 1.5-year high on Tuesday. The cocoa bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an accelerating 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,600. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,235. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $2,471 and then at $2,500. First support is seen at Tuesday's low of $2,404 and then at $2,350. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

 

May cotton closed up 79 points at 83.19 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The cotton bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 87.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 83.77 and then at 84.50 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 81.71 cents and then at 81.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

 

May orange juice closed down 80 points at $1.4165 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at the February high of $1.5020. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.3600. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $1.4335 and then at $1.4500. First support is seen at today's low of $1.4000 and then at this week's low of $1.3785. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

 

May lumber futures closed down the $10.00 limit at $478.60 today. The still bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the recent selling pressure still suggests a market top is in place. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $450.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $500.00. First resistance is seen at $485.00 and then at this week's high of $489.40. First support is seen at this week's low of $473.80 and then at $470.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $6.90 at $1,328.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on a corrective pullback from Tuesday's solid gains. The gold bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,350.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,342.00 and then at $1,350.00. First support is seen at this week's low of $1,318.30 and then at $1,309.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

 

May silver futures closed down $0.289 at $16.495 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and gave back most of Tuesday's big gains. The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $17.04 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at $16.75 and then at this week's high of $16.895. Next support is seen at this week's low of $16.37 and then at the March low of $16.16. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

 

May N.Y. copper closed down 255 points at 313.35 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 329.05 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 304.65 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 315.85 cents and then at this week's high of 317.80 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 311.75 cents and then at this week's low of 309.55 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

*. ENERGIES: April Nymex crude oil closed down $1.28 at $61.31 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage as trading has turned choppy. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is closing prices above resistance at the February high of $64.24. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of $57.90. First resistance is seen at $62.00 and then at today's high of $62.58. First support is seen at $61.00 and then at today's low of $60.58. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

 

April heating oil closed down 208 points at $1.8746 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $2.1098. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at the February low of $1.8097. First resistance lies at this week's high of $1.9111 and then at $1.9300. First support is seen at last week's low of $1.8500 and then at $1.8097. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

 

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 228 points at $1.9103 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and scored a bearish "outside day" down. The bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. A bear flag pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $2.0122. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $1.8284. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1.9486 and then at 1.9800. First support is seen at today's low of $1.8985 and then at $1.8700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

April natural gas closed up 3.7 cents at $2.786 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a four- week high. Bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.90. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $2.565. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2.788 and then at $2.80. First support is seen at today's low of $2.744 and then at $2.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed up 7 points at 1.2507 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after hitting a three-week high early on. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 1.2658. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the March low of 1.2254. First resistance for the Euro lies at today's high of 1.2547 and then at 1.2600. Next support is seen at Tuesday's low of 1.2424 and then at 1.2400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

The June Japanese yen closed up 80 points at .94885 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at .97000. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at .92500. First resistance is seen at today's high of .95475 and then at last week's high of .95685. First support is seen at this week's low of .94595 and then at .94000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

The June Swiss franc closed down 27 points at 1.0698 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The Swissy bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, a fledgling price downtrend on the daily bar chart is in place to suggest a near-term top is in place. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 1.0986. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 1.0785 and then at 1.0825. First support is seen at today's low of 1.0685 and then at the March low of 1.0642. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

The June Australian dollar closed up 8 points at .7828 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at the February high of .7985. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at .7600. First resistance is seen at this week's high of .7844 and then at .7900. First support is seen at Tuesday's low of .7760 and then at last week's low of .7716. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

 

The June Canadian dollar closed down 5 points at .7766 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. Prices Monday hit a nine-month low. The bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at .7900. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at .7500. First resistance is seen at this week's high of .7789 and then at .7800. Next support is seen at this week's low of .7708 and then at .6650. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

The June British pound closed up 15 points at 1.3965 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw more short covering after hitting a six-week low last week. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. A six-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.4200. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at 1.3600. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 1.3994 and then at 1.4100. First support is seen at Tuesday's low of 1.3884 and then at this week's low of 1.3829. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 0.020 at 89.140 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish double-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 91.000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of 87.830. Next resistance lies at this week's high of 89.765 and then at 90.000. First support is seen at today's low of 88.915 and then at 88.500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

 

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 6/32 at 143 6/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bond market bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 141 14/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 147 even. First resistance is seen at today's high of 144 even and then at last week's high of 144 20/32. First support is seen at this week's low of 142 21/32 and then at 142 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

June U.S. T Notes closed up 0.5 (32nds) at 120.01.5 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 122.02.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at the contract low of 119.14.0. First resistance is seen at today's high of 120.14.5 and then at last week's high of 120.23.0. First support is seen at this week's low of 119.26.5 and then at 119.20.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

 

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: U.S. stock indexes closed mixed today. The ADP national employment report for February showed a rise of 235,000. Forecasters expected the ADP number to come in at up 200,000. Gold prices dipped just a bit on the news. This report suggests Friday's more important jobs report from the U.S. Department of Labor will come in strong, too. World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. The stock, financial and currency markets are somewhat spooked after White House chief economist Gary Kohn announced his resignation amid the increasingly protectionist rhetoric coming from U.S. President Donald Trump. The resignation of Kohn suggests Trump is pushing forward with his plan to slap tariffs on imported aluminum and steel. Kohn's departure heightened the speculation that there is keen turmoil presently in the White House west wing. In overnight news, the European Union warned the U.S. that it will retaliate to any U.S. trade tariffs levied against the EU. The Euro zone reported its fourth-quarter gross domestic product at up 0.6% from the third quarter and up 2.7%, year-on-year. Those numbers were right in line with market expectations.

 

The March Nasdaq 100 stock index futures closed up 19.25 at 6,927.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the January high of 7,047.25. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 6,500.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 6,939.25 and then at 6,970.00. First support is seen at 6,871.75 and then at 6,850.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

The March e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed down 0.50 at 2,723.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the recent price uptrend has been negated. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at last week's high of 2,789.75. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at 2,600.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 2,734.50 and then at 2,750.00. First support is seen at 2,700.00 and then at today's low of 2,681.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.


Disclaimer

Need to re-examine my welcome letter to all new customers and an explanation of my Market Rating System, just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll get those attachments emailed right back to you.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.