Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - March 8, 2018

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

 

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $1.07 at 122.05 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a seven- week low. The cattle market bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week- old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid resistance at the February high of $127.95. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $118.05. First resistance is seen at today's high of $123.30 and then at this week's high of $124.82. First support is seen at today's low of $120.90 and then at $120.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May feeder cattle closed down $2.35 at $144.62 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a six-week low today. The feeder cattle market bears have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close prices above technical resistance at $150.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the December low of $139.20. First resistance is seen at $146.00 and then at today's high of $147.30. First support is seen at today's low of $143.32 and then at $142.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

 

April lean hogs closed up $0.20 at $68.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on tepid short covering after hitting a six-month low on Wednesday. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to close prices above solid chart resistance at $72.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $65.05. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $69.32 and then at $70.00. First support is seen at $67.00 and then at this week's low of $66.42. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

 

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed up 6 1/2 cents at $3.93 1/4 today. Prices closed near the session high, scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart and also hit a six-month high today. The corn bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at $4.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $3.80. First resistance is seen at today's high of $3.93 3/4 and then at $3.95. First support is seen at $3.90 and then at $3.85 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

May soybeans closed down 1 1/2 cents at $10.62 a bushel today. Prices closed near mid-range on mild profit taking. The bean bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage as a steep two-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.50. First resistance is seen at today's high of $10.69 1/4 and then at $10.75. First support is seen at today's low of $10.56 1/2 and then at $10.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

 

May soybean meal closed up $0.40 at $383.00 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The meal bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $415.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $375.00. First resistance comes in at today's high of $386.20 and then at $390.00. First support is seen at $380.00 and then at $375.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

May bean oil closed down 25 points at 31.82 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 33.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 31.61 cents. First resistance is seen at 32.00 cents and then at 32.25 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 31.80 cents and then at 31.61 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

May Chicago SRW wheat closed up 2 cents at $4.99 1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The wheat bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to push and close SRW prices above solid technical resistance at $5.25. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $5.10 1/2 and then at the March high of $5/18 1/2. First support is seen at today's low of $4.90 1/4 and then at $4.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

 

May HRW wheat closed down 1 1/2 cents at $5.32 3/4 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.75. The bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $5.38 1/2 and then at the March high of $5.48 1/2. First support is seen at today's low of $5.26 and then at $5.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 10 points at 12.89 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw tepid short covering after hitting a contract and multi- year low on Wednesday. The sugar bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage, to suggest another leg down in prices. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 14.02 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 12.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 13.11 cents and then at 13.36 cents. First support is seen at Wednesday's contract low of 12.76 cents and then at 12.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

 

May coffee closed down 40 points at 120.35 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range. The coffee bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 126.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 115.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 122.30 cents and then at last week's high of 124.20 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 123.35 cents and then at the February low of 118.55 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

May cocoa closed up $44 at $2,487 a ton today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a 1.5-year high today. The cocoa bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an accelerating 2.5- month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,700. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at this week's low of $2,331. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,522 and then at $2,550. First support is seen at today's low of $2,427 and then at $2,400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

 

May cotton closed up 205 points at 84.91 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The cotton bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 87.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 85.25 and then at this week's high of 86.60 cents. First support is seen at 84.00 cents and then at 83.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

 

May orange juice closed down 265 points at $1.3900 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at the February high of $1.5020. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.3600. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1.4120 and then at this week's high of $1.4335. First support is seen at this week's low of $1.3785 and then at $1.3500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

May lumber futures closed up $1.10 at $479.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on tepid short covering. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the recent selling pressure still suggests a market top is in place. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $450.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $500.00. First resistance is seen at $485.00 and then at this week's high of $489.40. First support is seen at this week's low of $473.80 and then at $470.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $5.90 at $1,321.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today. The gold bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,350.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,329.80 and then at $1,335.00. First support is seen at this week's low of $1,318.30 and then at $1,309.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May silver futures closed down $0.004 at $16.49 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $17.04 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at $16.60 and then at $16.75. Next support is seen at this week's low of $16.37 and then at the March low of $16.16. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

May N.Y. copper closed down 565 points at 307.95 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 320.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 304.65 cents. First resistance is seen at 310.00 cents and then at today's high of 313.95 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 307.05 cents and then at 304.65 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

 

*. ENERGIES: April Nymex crude oil closed down $0.87 at $60.27 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a three-week low today. The bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading and need to show fresh power soon to keep it. The next near- term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is closing prices above resistance at the February high of $64.24. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of $57.90. First resistance is seen at $61.00 and then at today's high of $61.40. First support is seen at $60.00 and then at $59.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

 

April heating oil closed down 97 points at $1.8591 today. Prices closed near the session low. The bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at the February low of $1.8097. First resistance lies at this week's high of $1.9111 and then at $1.9300. First support is seen at last week's low of $1.8500 and then at $1.8097. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

 

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 426 points at $1.8677 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bulls and bears are now on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $2.0122. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $1.8284. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1.9039 and then at this week's high of 1.9486. First support is seen at the March low of $1.8566 and then at $1.8284. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

April natural gas closed down 3.1 cents at $2.746 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit taking after hitting a four-week high early on. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.90. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $2.565. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2.793 and then at $2.85. First support is seen at today's low of $2.737 and then at $2.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed down 98 points at 1.2402 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 1.2658. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the March low of 1.2254. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.2500 and then at this week's high of 1.2547. Next support is seen at this week's low of 1.2366 and then at 1.2300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

The June Japanese yen closed down 240 points at .94705 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at .97000. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at .92500. First resistance is seen at today's high of .95050 and then at Wednesday's high of .95475. First support is seen at this week's low of .94595 and then at .94000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

The June Swiss franc closed down 90 points at 1.0602 today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a six-week low. The Swissy bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. A fledgling price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 1.0986. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen at 1.0650 and then at today's high of 1.0700. First support is seen at today's low of 1.0593 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

The June Australian dollar closed down 27 points at .7791 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at the February high of .7985. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at .7600. First resistance is seen at this week's high of .7844 and then at .7900. First support is seen at .7760 and then at last week's low of .7716. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

 

The June Canadian dollar closed up 17 points at .7770 today. Prices closed near mid-range. Prices Monday hit a nine-month low. The bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week- old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at .7900. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at .7500. First resistance is seen at this week's high of .7789 and then at .7800. Next support is seen at this week's low of .7708 and then at .6650. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

The June British pound closed down 84 points at 1.3874 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. A six-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.4200. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at 1.3600. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 1.3994 and then at 1.4100. First support is seen at this week's low of 1.3829 and then at 1.3800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 0.510 at 89.695 today. Prices closed near the session high today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish double-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 91.000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of 87.830. Next resistance lies at 90.000 and then at the March high of 90.255. First support is seen at 89.500 and then at this week's low of 88.915. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 19/32 at 143 22/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering. The bond market bears have the firm overall near- term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 141 14/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 147 even. First resistance is seen at today's high of 144 even and then at last week's high of 144 20/32. First support is seen at this week's low of 142 21/32 and then at 142 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

 

June U.S. T Notes closed up 6.0 (32nds) at 120.07.0 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 122.02.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at the contract low of 119.14.0. First resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of 120.14.5 and then at last week's high of 120.23.0. First support is seen at this week's low of 119.26.5 and then at 119.20.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

 

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: U.S. stock indexes closed higher today. The indexes were boosted a bit on news the Trump Administration this afternoon put into effect tariffs on steel and aluminum imports into the U.S., but they are watered down only specific to certain countries. That somewhat assuaged the marketplace. The other main event of the trading day Thursday was the European Central Bank's regular monetary policy meeting. No change in interest rates or monetary policy was announced at the meeting's conclusion. No changes were expected. However, the wording of the ECB statement left out the reference that it would increase its quantitative easing if needed, which some deemed as a bit hawkish. The Bank of Japan holds its monetary policy meeting on Friday. On Friday is the major U.S. economic report of the week, if not the month: the Labor Department's employment situation report. The key "non-farm" payrolls number for February is expected to come in at up 205,000.

 

The March Nasdaq 100 stock index futures closed up 49.50 at 6,974.00 today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the January high of 7,047.25. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 6,500.00. First resistance is seen at the February high of 7,009.00 and then at 7,047.25. First support is seen at today's low of 6,913.50 and then at 6,850.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

 

The March e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed up 15.25 at 2,738.50 today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 2,789.75. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at 2,600.00. First resistance is seen at 2,750.00 and then at 2,775.00. First support is seen at today's low of 2,720.00 and then at 2,700.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.


Disclaimer

Need to re-examine my welcome letter to all new customers and an explanation of my Market Rating System, just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll get those attachments emailed right back to you.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.