Crude Oil Coiling for a Breakout

In the summer of 2014, Crude began a seven-month, over $50 decline to about $42. However over the past four months, it has slowly traded back above $60, settling near that price on Friday, June 12, 2015. During the last six weeks, crude oil found a comfortable $6 trading range of 5651-to-6258. During that span, the weekly ranges were almost all the same. As volatile as crude oil has been, that $6 range over the course of six weeks is a relatively tight range. It's possible that crude oil will remain within the tight balance for several more weeks, but it is best to be prepared for the breakout. When a volatile market such as crude oil is contained within such a tight range for an extended period of time, a significant move usually follows the break from balance.

If crude oil is to continue the current four-month advance, it will need to gain acceptance above the 6258-balance high. The next upside references on the weekly/monthly charts are 6555 and 6994. If the market gains acceptance below the 5651-balance low, the current upside trend would be over and the market would likely test the round number of $50 crude oil again.

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