The Soybean-Corn Spread

I believe that watching and analyzing intercommodity spreads can uncover true value. It is often a better method of interpreting current price levels when contrasted with attempting to understand the nominal prices of commodities themselves. An intercommodity spread is...Read>>

Kansas City Wheat on the Move versus Chicago Wheat

The memories of a frigid winter have melted into the summer heat across the US. It has been a great summer for grain production; the weather has been temperate with corn, soybean, and wheat crops all thriving. Grain prices...Read>>

From Russia with Love

How might the latest tensions impact commodity prices? Increasing tensions between the West and Russia surrounding Ukraine could impact some commodity prices. Physical flows of these commodities could be interrupted, or pre-sanction dumping may occur. As a major producer...Read>>

Heating Oil Calendar Spread Gearing for a Possible Breakout

About six weeks ago, the November/December heating oil calendar spread began a decline that lasted over three weeks. When the market traded below -130, buyers stepped in and left an excess buying tail as -130 became support after the...Read>>

Backtesting Tip: Events That Set Up a Trade

In this article we will look into different ways to use an event to set up a trading opportunity. We will review the differences between BarsSince, Happenedwithin, and Set/Reset. The first example is very simple. We want to buy...Read>>

Natural Gas Coiling for a Breakout

Over the past several weeks, September natural gas has been trending lower. Since the start of the decline in early June, the market formed a pattern of balancing for several days prior to a rapid decline four times. This...Read>>

Wheat: Will Problems in Ukraine Affect Prices in 2014?

Prior to the release of the July US Department of Agriculture's monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, I posted the article, Grains: A Contrarian Play? In that article, I stated that soybeans, corn, and wheat were...Read>>

Heat Calendar Spread Approaching an Important Reference

Over the past three weeks, the August/September heating oil spread has been contained within a -108 to -155 balance bracket. On Friday, July 18, 2014, the market came within five ticks of the balance bracket highbefore selling off and...Read>>

RBOB Crack Contained within a Four-Day Balance

Over the past three weeks, the short-term trend in the August RBOB crack has been down. During the past four days, the crack has come into short-term balance, rotating within a 2090-to-2188-balance-bracket range. From Wednesday, July 9, 2014 to...Read>>

Grains: A Contrarian Play?

Very often commodity prices take the stairs up and the elevator down. Recently, grains have taken the express elevator. The prices of soybeans, corn, and wheat have plummeted over recent weeks. New crop November soybeans were trading at $12.4625...Read>>
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