Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - February 15, 2018

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

 

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $2.05 at 127.27 today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a three- month high today. The cattle market bulls have firm overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at the November high of $130.10. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $122.50. First resistance is seen at $127.50 and then at $128.00. First support is seen at $126.00 and then at today's low of $125.22. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

March feeder cattle closed up $1.72 at $149.90 today. Prices closed near the session high. The feeder cattle market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above technical resistance at the February high of $151.95. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $144.20. First resistance is seen at today's high of $150.12 and then at $151.00. First support is seen at $148.00 and then at today's low of $147.97. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

April lean hogs closed down $0.95 at $69.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep four- week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $72.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $65.05. First resistance is seen at $70.00 and then at this week's high of $71.27. First support is seen at this week's low of $68.55 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed up 1 cent at $3.68 1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a 3.5- month high today. The corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $3.75. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at $3.56 1/4. First resistance is seen at today's high of $3.68 3/4 and then at $3.70. First support is seen at this week's low of $3.64 1/4 and then at $3.61 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

March soybeans closed up 6 3/4 cents at $10.24 a bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today and hit another nine-week high. The bean bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage and have momentum on their side. An accelerating four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart is in place. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid resistance at the December high of $10.27. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at this week's low of $9.89. First resistance is seen at today's high of $10.24 3/4 and then at $10.27. First support is seen at today's low of $10.15 1/2 and then at $10.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

March soybean meal closed up $3.90 at $373.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit another contract high today. The meal bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $385.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $348.00. First resistance comes in at today's contract high of $374.90 and then at $378.00. First support is seen at today's low of $368.80 and then at $365.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

 

March bean oil closed down 11 points at 31.69 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 33.31 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 28.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 32.00 cents and then at this week's high of 32.36 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 31.40 cents and then at 31.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

 

March Chicago SRW wheat closed up 5 1/2 cents at $4.61 1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart. The wheat bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to push and close SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $4.82. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.25. First resistance is seen at today's high of $4.63 1/2 and then at this week's high of $4.67 1/4. First support is seen at this week's low of $4.51 and then at $4.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

March HRW wheat closed up 8 1/4 cents at $4.78 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.00. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.54 1/2. First resistance is seen at today's high of $4.80 1/4 and then at last week's high of $4.84 1/2. First support is seen at $4.70 and then at $4.65. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 22 points at 13.62 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The sugar bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 14.50 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at the January low of 13.02 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 13.76 cents and then at this week's high of 13.84 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 13.44 cents and then at this week's low of 13.35 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

 

March coffee closed down 105 points at 121.75 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The coffee bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 125.85 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 118.30 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today's high of 123.40 cents and then at last week's high of 124.40 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 120.50 cents and then at the February low of 119.10 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

March cocoa closed up $77 at $2,132 a ton today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The cocoa bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and have gained good power the past two sessions. Prices are in an accelerating six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of $2,226. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,000. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,139 and then at $2,150. First support is seen at $2,100 and then at today's low of $2,077. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

March cotton closed down 36 points at 75.24 cents today. Prices closed near the session low and hit an 11-week low today. The cotton bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 80.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 72.50 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 76.29 cents and then at 77.00 cents. First support is seen at 75.00 cents and then at 74.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

March orange juice closed up 55 points at $1.4995 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at the January high of $1.5270. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.3750. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1.4930 and then at $1.5000. First support is seen at today's low of $1.4680 and then at $1.4500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

March lumber futures closed up $0.70 at $501.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after hitting a contract high early on. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $480.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $520.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $493.30 and then at the contract high of $496.60. First support is seen at $500.00 and then at $495.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

 

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $3.70 at $1,354.40 today. Prices closed the day session near mid- range and saw a corrective pullback from Wednesday's big gains. The gold bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the January high of $1,370.50. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,320.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,359.80 and then at $1,370.50. First support is seen at $1,350.00 and then at $1,340.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

March silver futures closed down $0.083 at $16.795 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The silver bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $17.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $16.95 and then at $17.00. Next support is seen at today's low of $16.605 and then at $16.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

 

March N.Y. copper closed up 80 points at 324.35 cents today. Prices closed near the session high. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have gained power this week. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of 323.65 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 302.60 cents. First resistance is seen at 325.75 cents and then at 327.90 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 321.25 cents and then at 318.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

 

*. ENERGIES: March Nymex crude oil closed up $0.99 at $61.58 today. Prices closed near the session high today. The bulls have regained the overall near-term technical advantage with the recent good gains. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is pushing prices above resistance at $64.00. The next near- term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of $58.07. First resistance is seen at today's high of $61.64 and then at $62.00. First support is seen at $61.00 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

March heating oil closed up 82 points at $1.8962 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering after hitting a 3.5-month low on Wednesday. The bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at $1.7500. First support lies at today's low of $1.8549 and then at this week's low of $1.8084. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1.9039 and then at $1.9250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

 

March (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 228 points at $1.7358 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw short covering after hitting a 3.5-month low earlier this week. The bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $1.8300. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at $1.6000. First resistance is seen at $1.7500 and then at 1.7750. First support is seen at $1.7000 and then at $1.6750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

 

March natural gas closed steady at $2.587 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a contract low early on. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.85. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $2.50. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $2.642 and then at $2.70. First support is seen at today's low of $2.53 and then at $2.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

 

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency closed up 54 points at 1.2516 today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have upside momentum to at least challenge the January high soon. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 1.2576. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the February low of 1.2233. First resistance for the Euro lies at today's high of 1.2533 and then at 1.2576. Next support is seen at today's low of 1.2471 and then at 1.2400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

 

The March Japanese yen closed up 555 points at .94120 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a contract high today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have gained more power this week. Prices are in an accelerating five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at .96000. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at .92000. First resistance is seen at today's contract high of .99340 and then at .99500. First support is seen at today's low of .93650 and then at .93000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

 

The March Swiss franc closed up 73 points at 1.0843 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a 22-month high today. The Swissy bulls have the solid overall near- term technical advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 1.0589. First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.0866 and then at 1.0900. First support is seen at today's low of 1.0786 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

 

The March Australian dollar closed up 8 points at .7920 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls have regained the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at the January high of .8135. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at .7700. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7965 and then at .8000. Next support is seen at today's low of .7891 and then at .7825. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

The March Canadian dollar closed up 9 points at .7998 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at the February high of .8168. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at .7800. First resistance is seen at today's high of .8025 and then at .8050. First support is seen at today's low of .7979 and then at .7950. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

 

The March British pound closed up 85 points at 1.4088 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have gained momentum late this week. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 1.4370. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at 1.3750. First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.4115 and then at 1.4200. First support is seen at 1.4000 and then at 1.3900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

 

The March U.S. dollar index closed down 0.375 at 88.625 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have gained power this week. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 91.000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the January low of 88.250. Next resistance lies at 89.000 and then at 89.500. First support is seen at today's low of 88.490 and then at 88.250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

 

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 17/32 at 143 29/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering in a bear market. Prices this week hit a contract low. The bond market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 142 even. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 148 even. First resistance is seen at today's high of 144 11/32 and then at 145 even. First support is seen at the contract low of 143 4/32 and then at 143 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

March U.S. T Notes closed up 3.5 (32nds) at 120.14.0 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on tepid short covering after hitting a contract low early on. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 120.18.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at 119.00.0. First resistance is seen at today's high of 120.18.0 and then at 120.24.0. First support is seen at today's contract low of 120.01.0 and then at 120.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

 

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: U.S. stock indexes closed higher again today. Global stock markets were mostly higher Thursday and mostly overlooked the volatility seen in the U.S. stock market early Wednesday. The January U.S. producer price index report came in at up 0.4% from December, with the "core" reading also up 0.4%. The January PPI was forecast to come in at up 0.4% from December on the headline number, and up 0.2% excluding food and energy, or the core. Markets' prices moved little on this news, after seeing volatility in the aftermath of Wednesday's consumer price index report. China and South Korean markets were closed Thursday for the Lunar New Year holiday.

 

The March Nasdaq 100 stock index futures closed up 125.00 at 6,812.00 today. Prices closed near the session high and have gained back all of last week's big losses. Bulls are having a very good week, but trading Friday will be the most important of the week. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 7,000.00. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 6,400.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of 6,818.00 and then at 6,850.00. First support is seen at 6,750.00 and then at 6,700.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

The March e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed up 35.75 at 2,732.75 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls are having a very good week but Friday will be the most important trading day of the week. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at last week's high of 2,763.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at this week's low of 2,620.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of 2,735.00 and then at 2,750.00. First support is seen at 2,700.00 and then at today's low of 2,688.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.


Disclaimer

Need to re-examine my welcome letter to all new customers and an explanation of my Market Rating System, just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll get those attachments emailed right back to you.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.