Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - February 28, 2018

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

 

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.92 at 123.32 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and closed at a bearish monthly low close. The cattle market bulls still have overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading and need to show fresh power soon. A five-week- old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at the February high of $127.95. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $120.00. First resistance is seen at $124.00 and then at $125.00. First support is seen at today's low of $122.92 and then at $122.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

May feeder cattle closed down $1.75 at $148.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The feeder cattle market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but just barely. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above technical resistance at the February high of $153.55. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $145.00. First resistance is seen at $150.00 and then at this week's high of $150.97. First support is seen at this week's low of $147.77 and then at $147.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

April lean hogs closed down $2.57 at $67.32 today. Prices closed nearer the session low, hit a 5.5-month low and closed at a bearish monthly low close today. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to close prices above solid chart resistance at $72.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $65.05. First resistance is seen at $68.00 and then at $69.00. First support is seen at today's low of $67.12 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

 

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed up 2 cents at $3.81 1/4 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another five- month high today. Prices also closed at a technically bullish monthly high close. The corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $4.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at $3.70. First resistance is seen at today's high of $3.84 3/4 and then at $3.90. First support is seen at today's low of $3.78 1/4 and then at this week's low of $3.74 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

May soybeans closed up 5 1/2 cents at $10.55 a bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session high and closed at a contract high close today. Prices also closed at a technically bullish monthly high close today. The bean bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage as a steep six-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid resistance at $10.75. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $10.20. First resistance is seen at this week's contract high of $10.59 1/2 and then at $10.70. First support is seen at today's low of $10.45 3/4 and then at $10.37 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

 

May soybean meal closed up $2.30 at $392.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and did hit a contract high today. The meal bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $400.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $370.00. First resistance comes in at today's contract high of $399.20 and then at $400.00. First support is seen at $390.00 and then at $385.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

 

May bean oil closed down 14 points at 32.26 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 33.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 31.61 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 32.65 cents and then at this week's high of 32.96 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 32.20 cents and then at 32.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

May Chicago SRW wheat closed up 15 cents at $4.92 1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a 6.5- month high today. Prices also closed at a technically bullish monthly high close today. The wheat bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to push and close SRW prices above solid technical resistance at $5.25. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.57. First resistance is seen at $5.00 and then at $5.10. First support is seen at $4.80 and then at $4.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

May HRW wheat closed up 17 3/4 cents at $5.22 1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit another six- month high today. Prices also closed at a technically bullish monthly high close today. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.50. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75 3/4. First resistance is seen at today's high of $5.28 3/4 and then at $5.35. First support is seen at $5.10 and then at $5.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 51 points at 13.38 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high after hitting a 2.5-year low early on today. Today's price action scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart, and if there is good follow-through buying on Thursday then a more significantly bullish "key reversal" up would be confirmed. That would be a chart clue that a market bottom is in place. But right now the sugar bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 14.02 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 12.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 13.49 cents and then at last week's high of 13.63 cents. First support is seen at 13.20 cents and then at 13.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

 

May coffee closed up 100 points at 122.10 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering. The coffee bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 126.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 115.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 122.80 cents and then at 125.00 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 120.30 cents and then at the contract low of 118.55 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

May cocoa closed down $14 at $2,213 a ton today. Prices closed nearer the session high on mild profit taking after hitting a 3.5-month high on Tuesday. The cocoa bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an accelerating seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of $2,235. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,100. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,226 and then at $2,235. First support is seen at $2,194 and then at $2,179. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

 

May cotton closed up 53 points at 82.78 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a four-week high today. Prices also closed at a bullish monthly high close today. The cotton bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the January high of 84.45 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at the February low of 76.44 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 83.05 cents and then at 83.80 cents. First support is seen at 82.00 cents and then at this week's low of 81.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

 

May orange juice closed up 60 points at $1.4460 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at this week's high of $1.5020. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.3750. First resistance is seen at $1.4630 and then at $1.4800. First support is seen at this week's low of $1.4300 and then at last week's low of $1.4050. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

 

May lumber futures closed down the $10.00 limit at $501.70 today. Profit taking was featured. Prices last week hit a contract high. The bulls still have the firm overall near- term technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $500.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $530.00. First resistance is seen at $505.00 and then at $510.00. First support is seen at $500.00 and then at $495.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

*. METALS: April gold futures closed up $1.20 at $1,319.80 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The gold bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but have faded recently to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,350.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at $1,325.00 and then at $1,330.00. First support is seen at this week's low of $1,314.40 and then at the February low of $1,309.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

 

May silver futures closed up $0.026 at $16.46 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $17.04 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $16.52 and then at Tuesday's high of $16.72. Next support is seen at this week's low of $16.34 and then at the February low of $16.21. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

 

May N.Y. copper closed down 535 points at 313.30 cents today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a two- week low today. The copper bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading this week. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 329.05 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 304.65 cents. First resistance is seen at 315.00 cents and then at today's high of 318.60 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 312.95 cents and then at 310.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

*. ENERGIES: April Nymex crude oil closed down $1.40 at $61.60 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw more profit taking after prices hit a three-week high on Monday. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. Rising U.S. shale oil production will likely cap gains to at or below the January high, in the coming weeks, or longer. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is closing prices above resistance at the January high of $66.39. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of $57.90. First resistance is seen at $62.00 and then at $62.50. First support is seen at today's low of $61.36 and then at $61.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

April heating oil closed down 638 points at $1.9049 today. Prices closed near the session low. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $2.1098. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at the February low of $1.8097. First resistance lies at $1.9500 and then at today's high of $1.9723. First support is seen at $1.9000 and then at $1.8500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 597 points at $1.9246 today. Prices closed near the session low. The bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but faded today. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week's high of $2.0122. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $1.8284. First resistance is seen at $1.9500 and then at today's high of 1.9834. First support is seen at today's low of $1.9209 and then at $1.9000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

 

April natural gas closed down 1.1 cent at $2.672 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.82. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of $2.487. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $2.723 and then at $2.75. First support is seen at this week's low of $2.633 and then at last week's low of $2.593. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed down 35 points at 1.2302 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a six-week low today. Prices also closed at a bearish monthly low close. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. A bearish double-top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.2500. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the January low of 1.2040. First resistance for the Euro lies at today's high of 1.2340 and then at 1.2400. Next support is seen at today's low of 1.2287 and then at 1.2250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

The June Japanese yen closed up 590 points at .94385 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the contract high of .95485. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at .92000. First resistance is seen at this week's high of .94700 and then at .95000. First support is seen at .94000 and then at this week's low of .93595. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

The June Swiss franc closed down 53 points at 1.0698 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a three-week low today. Prices also closed at a bearish monthly low close today. The Swissy bulls still have the overall near- term technical advantage. However, an 11-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and there are chart clues of a near-term top being in place. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 1.0986. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.0750 and then at 1.0780. First support is seen at the February low of 1.0669 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

The June Australian dollar closed down 12 points at .7787 today. Prices closed near the session low today and closed at a bearish monthly low close. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, a bearish symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at the February high of .7985. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at .7700. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7820 and then at .7869. First support is seen at the February low of .7761 and then at .7700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

The June Canadian dollar closed down 39 points at .7816 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a two- month low today. Prices also closed at a bearish monthly low close today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at .8000. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the October low of .7763. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7849 and then at .7900. Next support is seen at today's low of .7814 and then at .7800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

The June British pound closed down 134 points at 1.3847 today. Prices closed near the session low and closed at a bearish monthly low close. The bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. A four-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.4200. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at 1.3600. First resistance is seen at 1.3900 and then at 1.4000. First support is seen at today's low of 1.3836 and then at 1.3800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

 

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 0.270 at 90.165 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a six- week high. Prices also closed at a bullish monthly high close today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish double-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart, to suggest a market bottom is in place. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 91.000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of 87.830. Next resistance lies at 90.500 and then at 91.000. First support is seen at 89.750 and then at 89.500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 29/32 at 143 15/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering. The bond market bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 140 even. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 146 even. First resistance is seen at 143 even and then at this week's high of 143 26/32. First support is seen at 143 even and then at today's low of 142 17/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

June U.S. T Notes closed up 8.5 (32nds) at 120.02.0 today. Prices closed near the session high today, on short covering. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 122.02.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at 119.00.0. First resistance is seen at 120.10.0 and then at this week's high of 120.14.5. First support is seen at today's low of 119.21.5 and then at 119.16.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

 

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: U.S. stock indexes closed lower again today. World stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. The market place has pretty much digested new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to U.S. lawmakers Tuesday, in which he sounded a more hawkish tone on U.S. monetary policy. Powell intimated there could be four small U.S. rate hikes this year, beginning in March. His comments pressured the metals markets, U.S. Treasuries and the stock market, while supporting the U.S. dollar index. In overnight news, the Euro zone February consumer price index was reported at up 1.2% from January's up 1.3%, year-on- year. The February number was in line with market expectations and is the third month in a row of declining inflation in the Euro zone.

 

The March Nasdaq 100 stock index futures closed down 45.25 at 6,870.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the specter of a bearish double top reversal pattern now exists on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the January high of 7,047.25. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 6,700.00. First resistance is seen at 6,900.00 and then at today's high of 6,970.50. First support is seen at today's low of 6,857.75 and then at 6,825.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

The March e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed down 29.00 at 2,718.50 today. Prices closed near the session low again today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, amid the recent price uptrend. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 2,800.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at 2,650.00. First resistance is seen at 2,750.00 and then at today's high of 2,762.00. First support is seen at today's low of 2,712.00 and then at 2,700.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.


Disclaimer

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Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.