Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - February 6, 2018

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

 

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.77 at 124.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Profit taking has been featured early this week. The cattle market bulls still have overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at the November high of $130.10. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $121.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $125.62 and then at this week's high of $127.20. First support is seen at today's low of $124.30 and then at $123.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

March feeder cattle closed down $0.95 at $148.72 today. Prices saw more profit-taking after hitting hit a two-month high on Monday. The feeder cattle market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above technical resistance at $154.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $142.50. First resistance is seen at today's high of $150.05 and then at $151.00. First support is seen at today's low of $147.92 and then at $147.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

April lean hogs closed down $1.92 at $71.40 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a four-month low today. The bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $75.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $68.00. First resistance is seen at $72.00 and then at today's high of $72.82. First support is seen at today's low of $70.60 and then at $70.00.Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed up 4 3/4 cents at $3.63 1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session high, hit a three-month high and scored a big and bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart. The corn bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $3.69 1/4. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at $3.49 1/2. First resistance is seen at today's high of $3.64 and then at $3.69 1/2. First support is seen at $3.60 1/2 and then at $3.58. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

March soybeans closed up 17 1/4 cents at $9.87 a bushel today. Prices closed near the session high today and scored a big and bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart. The bean bulls and bears are now back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid resistance at the January high of $10.04 3/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $9.44 1/2. First resistance is seen at today's high of $9.87 1/2 and then at $9.95. First support is seen at $9.80 and then at $9.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

March soybean meal closed up $5.90 at $332.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The meal bulls have regained the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the December high of $351.20. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $320.00. First resistance comes in at today's high of $333.80 and then at $335.00. First support is seen at $330.00 and then at this week's low of $326.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

 

March bean oil closed up 64 points at 33.14 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a three-week high. Short covering was featured. Prices also scored a big and bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 33.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of 32.10 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 33.31 cents and then at 33.50 cents. First support is seen at 33.00 cents and then at 32.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

March Chicago SRW wheat closed up 6 1/2 cents at $4.46 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The wheat bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at $4.75. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.20. First resistance is seen at $4.50 and then at last week's high of $4.58 3/4. First support is seen at today's low of $4.38 3/4 and then at $4.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

 

March HRW wheat closed up 8 1/4 cents at $4.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A bull flag pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $4.77 1/2. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.43. First resistance is seen at the February $4.71 1/4 and then at $4.75. First support is seen at today's low of $4.59 1/2 and then at this week's low of $4.54 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 6 points at 13.84 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The sugar bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 14.50 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at the January low of 13.02 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 14.04 cents and then at 14.25 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 13.70 cents and then at 13.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

 

March coffee closed up 310 points at 122.90 cents today. Prices closed near the session high and scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart. Short covering was featured today. The coffee bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 125.85 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 118.30 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today's high of 123.10 cents and then at 125.85 cents. First support is seen at 121.00 cents and then at today's low of 119.10 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

 

March cocoa closed down $2 at $2,043 a ton today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The cocoa bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,150. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $1,900. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $2,067 and then at $2,080. First support is seen at today's low of $2,012 and then at $2,000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5 

March cotton closed down 36 points at 76.21 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a six-week-low today. The cotton bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded badly recently, to suggest a market top is in place. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 80.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 75.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 77.00 cents and then at 77.50 cents. First support is seen at 76.00 cents and then at 75.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

March orange juice closed up 255 points at $1.4630 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering and bargain hunting. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at the January high of $1.5270. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.3750. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1.4755 and then at $1.5000. First support is seen at $1.4400 and then at this week's low of $1.4200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

 

March lumber futures closed up $6.10 at $484.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $467.80. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of $489.90. First resistance is seen at today's high of $487.90 and then at $489.90. First support is seen at $480.00 and then at today's low of $473.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

 

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $7.20 at $1,329.40 today. Prices closed the day session nearer the session low, hit a three-week low and scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. The big rebound in the stock market pressured safe-haven gold. The gold bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. No serious near-term chart damage has occurred yet. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the January high of $1,370.50. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at $1,340.00 and then at $1,350.00. First support is seen at today's low of $1,328.40 and then at $1,325.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

March silver futures closed down $0.101 at $16.57 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and closed at a six-week-low close today. The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $17.705 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at $16.75 and then at today's high of $16.955. Next support is seen at this week's low of $16.51 and then at $16.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

 

March N.Y. copper closed up 15 points at 319.15 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of 332.20 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of 310.80 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 321.95 cents and then at this week's high of 325.75 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 316.00 cents and then at last week's low of 315.20 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

*. ENERGIES: March Nymex crude oil closed down $0.58 at $63.57 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a three- week low today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, more selling pressure this week would suggest a market top is in place. The next near- term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is pushing prices above resistance at the January high of $66.66. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $62.00. First resistance is seen at $64.00 and then at today's high of $64.29. First support is seen at today's low of $63.12 and then at $62.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

March heating oil closed down 322 points at $1.9874 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another five- week low today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. A bearish broadening pattern formed on the daily bar chart, to suggest a market top is in place. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $2.1362. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at $1.9000. First support lies at today's low of $1.9824 and then at $1.9500. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2.0145 and then at this week's high of $2.0450. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

March (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 414 points at $1.8052 today. Prices gapped lower on the daily bar chart and closed nearer the session low and hit a five-week low today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading badly. A bearish broadening pattern formed on the daily chart to suggest a market top is in place. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $1.8800. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at $1.7500. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1.8301 and then at $1.8500. First support is seen at today's low of $1.8003 and then at $1.7750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

March natural gas closed up 1.1 cent at $2.758 today. Prices closed nearer the session high after hitting a four- week low early on today. Bears have the firm overall near- term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of $2.532. First resistance is seen at $2.80 and then at $2.85. First support is seen at today's low of $2.695 and then at $2.65. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

 

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency closed down 7 points at 1.2402 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.2700. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at 1.2300. First resistance for the Euro lies at this week's high of 1.2508 and then at last week's high of 1.2557. Next support is seen at today's low of 1.2345 and then at 1.2300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

The March Japanese yen closed up 100 points at .91480 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the January high of .92600. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at .90000. First resistance is seen at .92000 and then at today's high of .92415. First support is seen at today's low of .91405 and then at .91000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

The March Swiss franc closed down 9 points at 1.0702 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The Swissy bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0600. First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.0777 and then at 1.0800. First support is seen at today's low of 1.0673 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

 

The March Australian dollar closed down 15 points at .7885 today. Prices closed nearer the session high after hitting a four-week low early on today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading badly. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at the January high of .8135. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at .7750. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7912 and then at this week's high of .7953. Next support is seen at today's low of .7834 and then at .7800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

The March Canadian dollar closed down 1 point at .7999 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a three-week low today. Bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at the September high of .8271. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at .7850. First resistance is seen at today's high of .8000 and then at .8050. First support is seen at today's low of .7959 and then at .7948. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

The March British pound closed down 53 points at 1.3970 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. A 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 1.4370. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at 1.3750. First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.4021 and then at this week's high of 1.4173. First support is seen at 1.3900 and then at today's low of 1.3857. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 0.050 at 89.550 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the market has stabilized from recent selling pressure. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 91.000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the January low of 88.250. Next resistance lies at today's high of 89.920 and then at 90.250. First support is seen at today's low of 89.235 and then at 89.000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

 

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 1 12/32 at 145 17/32 today. Prices closed near the session low in a volatile trading day. Monday's bullish "key reversal" up on the daily bar chart now seems less compelling that a near-term market bottom is in place. The bond market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 143 even. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 149 16/32. First resistance is seen at 146 even and then at 147 even. First support is seen at 145 even and then at the contract low of 144 3/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

March U.S. T Notes closed down 23.5 (32nds) at 121.07.5 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Monday's bullish "key reversal" up on the daily bar chart now seems less compelling after today's solid losses. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage right now. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 123.00.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at 120.00.0. First resistance is seen at 121.16.0 and then at 122.00.0. First support is seen at 121.00.0 and then at the contract low of 120.18.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

 

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly higher today. World stock markets tumbled sharply Tuesday, following the strong losses in the U.S. stock indexes Monday. U.S. stocks opened sharply lower but quickly rebounded to score solid gains. Still, today's gains do not repair the major chart damage seen the past few days in the major U.S. stock indexes. That technical damage still suggests more downside pressure is coming. Today's gains in the U.S. stock market could be just a so- called "dead-cat bounce." Don't be surprised if more selling pressure in the stock market occurs yet this week. I would be very surprised if the steep downdraft we saw in stocks on Friday and Monday can just be swept under the rug by the bulls. Somewhat ironically, world bond markets yields fell Tuesday on some safe-haven demand from the steep downdraft in world stock markets. Still, don't look for the world bond markets to make a sustainable recovery in prices. The key "outside markets" on Tuesday saw the U.S. dollar index near steady and giving back good early gains. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices were lower and trading above $63.00 a barrel. The very shaky world equity markets have prompted some selling pressure in the crude oil markets recently.

 

The March Nasdaq 100 stock index futures closed up 199.00 at 6,653.75 today. Prices closed nearer the session high after hitting a two-month low early on today. Serious chart damage has been inflicted as the price uptrend on the daily chart has been firmly negated. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at today's high of this week's high of 6,813.50. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at today's low of 6,260.25. First resistance is seen at today's high of 6,677.00 and then at 6,700.00. First support is seen at 6,600.00 and then at 6,550.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

The March e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed up 69.75 at 2,689.75 today. Prices closed nearer the session high after hitting a four-month low early on today. Major near-term chart damage has been inflicted to still strongly suggest a near-term market top is in place. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at this week's high of 2,763.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at today's low of 2,529.00.First resistance is seen at 2,700.00 and then at 2,725.00. First support is seen at 2,650.00 and then at 2,625.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.


Disclaimer

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IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.