Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - February 8, 2018

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

 

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.12 at 123.85 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. More profit taking was featured today. The cattle market bulls still have overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at the November high of $130.10. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $121.00. First resistance is seen at $125.00 and then at today's high of $125.77. First support is seen at today's low of $123.45 and then at $122.50. Wyckoff's Market

Rating: 6.0

 

March feeder cattle closed down $0.92 at $147.37 today.

Prices scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart and saw more profit-taking after hitting hit a two- month high Monday. The feeder cattle market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above technical resistance at $154.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $142.50. First resistance is seen at $149.00 and then at today's high of $150.25. First support is seen at today's low of $147.05 and then at $146.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

April lean hogs closed down $0.20 at $69.05 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another four-month low today. The bears gave the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. However, the market is now short-term oversold and due for a corrective bounce in a bear market.

The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $73.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $65.05. First resistance is seen at

$70.00 and then at Wednesay's high of $70.82. First support is seen at today's low of $68.75 and then at $68.00.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed down 1/2 cent at $3.64

3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low after hitting another 3.5-month high early on today. The corn bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $3.69 1/4. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at $3.50. First resistance is seen at $3.65 3/4 and then at $3.69 1/2. First support is seen at Wednesday's low of $3.62 1/2 and then at $3.60.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

March soybeans closed up 4 3/4 cents at $9.88 a bushel today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid resistance at the January high of $10.04

3/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $9.44 1/2. First resistance is seen at today's high of $9.96 and then at $10.00. First support is seen at today's low of $9.77 3/4 and then at $9.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

March soybean meal closed up $6.40 at $341.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today. The meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the December high of $351.20. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $320.00. First resistance comes in at today's high of $346.00 and then at $351.20. First support is seen at $340.00 and then at $335.00. Wyckoff's Market

Rating: 6.5

 

March bean oil closed down 35 points at 32.21 cents today.

Prices closed near the session low. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have regained power late this week. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week's high of 33.31 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of

32.10 cents. First resistance is seen at 32.50 cents and then at today's high of 32.71 cents. First support is seen at 32.10 cents and then at 32.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market

Rating: 1.5

 

March Chicago SRW wheat closed down 4 cents at $4.56 1/2 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another four- month high today. The wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week- old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $4.82. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.25. First resistance is seen at today's high of $4.64 1/2 and then at $4.70. First support is seen at today's low of $4.51 1/4 and then at $4.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

 

March HRW wheat closed down 8 1/4 cents at $4.72 3/4 today.

Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a six-month high early on. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Price action this week has seen a bullish upside "breakout" from a bull flag pattern on the daily bar chart.

Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.00.

The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.50.

First resistance is seen at $4.80 and then at today's high of $4.84 1/2. First support is seen at today's low of $4.68

1/4 and then at $4.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 42 points at 13.58 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The sugar bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.

Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 14.50 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at the January low of 13.02 cents. First resistance is seen at

13.75 cents and then at this week's high of 14.04 cents.

First support is seen at 13.50 cents and then at 13.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

 

March coffee closed down 35 points at 122.95 cents today.

Prices closed near mid-range today. The coffee bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 125.85 cents.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 118.30 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today's high of 124.40 cents and then at 125.85 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 121.75 cents and then at this week's low of 119.10 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

 

March cocoa closed up $18 at $2,031 a ton today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The cocoa bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,100. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $1,900. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,046 and then at the February high of $2,067. First support is seen at $2,000 and then at this week's low of $1,988. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

March cotton closed up 102 points at 76.98 cents today.

Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering. The cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 80.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at

75.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 77.00 cents and then at 77.50 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 75.82 cents and then at 75.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

March orange juice closed up 205 points at $1.4750 today.

Prices closed near mid-range. Bulls have the overall near- term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at the January high of $1.5270.

The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.3750. First resistance is seen at today's high of

$1.4865 and then at $1.5000. First support is seen at today's low of $1.4660 and then at $1.4500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

March lumber futures closed down $1.80 at $491.90 today.

Prices closed near mid-range and hit another contract high today. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $467.80. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $500.00. First resistance is seen at today's contract high of $496.60 and then at $500.00. First support is seen at $489.90 and then at Wednesday's low of $484.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

 

*. METALS: April gold futures closed up $6.50 at $1,320.80 today. Prices closed the day session nearer the session high after hitting a four-week low early on today. Some safe-haven demand was featured on the strong selling pressure in the U.S. stock market. The gold bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but need to show more power soon to keep it. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,350.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at $1,325.00 and then at Wednesday's high of $1,334.80. First support is seen at today's low of

$1,309.00 and then at $1,300.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:

5.5

 

March silver futures closed up $0.112 at $16.35 today.

Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting a six-week low early on. Short covering and bargain hunting were featured. The silver bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $17.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the December low of $15.635. First resistance is seen at $16.50 and then at Wednesday's high of $16.73. Next support is seen at today's low of $16.19 and then at $16.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

March N.Y. copper closed down 110 points at 308.55 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another seven- week low today. The copper bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading to suggest a market top is in place. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week's high of 325.75 cents.

The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 300.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 311.90 cents and then at 315.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of

306.15 cents and then at 305.0 cents. Wyckoff's Market

Rating: 6.0.

 

*. ENERGIES: March Nymex crude oil closed down $1.36 at

$60.43 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another four-week low today. The bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, downside price action recently suggests a near-term market top is in place. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is pushing prices above resistance at $64.00. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at $62.00 and then at $62.50. First support is seen at today's low of $60.43 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

 

March heating oil closed down 213 points at $1.9100 today.

Prices closed near mid-range and hit another six-week low today. The bulls and bears are now on a level overall near- term technical playing field, but the bears have momentum.

The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.0500. Bears'

next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at $1.8000. First support lies at today's low of $1.9060 and then at $1.8750. First resistance is seen at $1.9500 and then at $1.9750.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

March (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 10 points at

$1.7650 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another six-week low today. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field, but the bears have momentum on their side. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week's high of $1.8800. Bears'

next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the December low of $1.6857. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1.7750 and then at $1.8000. First support is seen at today's low of $1.7485 and then at $1.7250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

March natural gas closed down 1.1 cent at $2.691 today.

Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another five- week low today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of $2.532.

First resistance is seen at today's high of $2.758 and then at $2.80. First support is seen at today's low of $2.681 and then at $2.65. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

 

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency closed down 26 points at 1.2279 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a three-week low today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded late this week. A two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated, at least for now. Euro bulls'

next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.2500. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at 1.2100. First resistance for the Euro lies at today's high of 1.2332 and then at 1.2400. Next support is seen at today's low of

1.2240 and then at 1.2200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

The March Japanese yen closed up 560 points at .92170 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and scored a bullish "outside day" up today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the January high of .92600. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at .90000. First resistance is seen at today's high of .92290 and then at .92600. First support is seen at today's low of .91265 and then at .91000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

The March Swiss franc closed up 73 points at 1.0712 today.

Prices closed near the session high today. The Swissy bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage.

Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 1.0738. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen at

1.0750 and then at this week's high of 1.0800. First support is seen at 1.0650 and then at today's low of 1.0589. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

 

The March Australian dollar closed down 44 points at .7780 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a five- week low today. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at .8000. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at .7700. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7842 and then at .7900. Next support is seen at today's low of .7780 and then at .7750. Wyckoff's Market Rating:

5.0

 

The March Canadian dollar closed down 23 points at .7934 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a five-week low today. Bears have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at the February high of .8168. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at .7800. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7973 and then at .8000. First support is seen at today's low of .7930 and then at .7900. Wyckoff's Market

Rating: 4.0

 

The March British pound closed up 23 points at 1.3922 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded a bit recently. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 1.4370. Bears'

next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at 1.3750. First resistance is seen at 1.4000 and then at today's high of 1.4087. First support is seen at this week's low of 1.3857 and then at 1.3800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 0.087 at 90.205 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a three- week high. While the bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, the market has stabilized from recent selling pressure, to suggest a near-term bottom is in place. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 91.000.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the January low of 88.250. Next resistance lies at today's high of 90.455 and then at 90.800. First support is seen at today's low of 89.895 and then at 89.500. Wyckoff's Market

Rating: 3.0.

 

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 11/32 at 144 9/32 today.

Prices closed near mid-range and hit another contract low today. The bond market bears have the solid overall near- term technical advantage and are poised to push the market still lower. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 142 even. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 148 even. First resistance is seen at today's high of 144 31/32 and then at 146 even. First support is seen at today's low of 143 20/32 and then at 143 even.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

 

March U.S. T Notes closed up 3.0 (32nds) at 121.03.0 today.

Prices closed nearer the session high and set a contract low early on today. The bears have the solid overall near- term technical advantage and are poised to push prices still lower in the near term. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 123.00.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at 120.00.0. First resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of 121.19.5 and then at 121.24.0.

First support is seen at today's contract low of 120.17.0 and then at 120.10.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

 

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: U.S. stock indexes were hammered hard again Thursday. World stock markets were mixed to lower overnight. Very serious near-term technical damage has been inflicted on the U.S. stock indexes recently, to suggest they have finally topped out for at least the near term. Look for continued higher volatility in equities in the coming days. In overnight news, the Bank of England kept its monetary policy unchanged at its regular meeting Thursday. No changes were expected. The Chinese yuan dropped by around 1% against the U.S. dollar for its biggest daily decline since the yuan was devalued in 2015. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan said overnight he believes the Fed should raise U.S.

interest rates three times in 2018, based upon continued strong U.S. economic growth and falling unemployment levels. German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann on Thursday called on the European Central Bank to end its quantitative easing program by this fall.

 

The March Nasdaq 100 stock index futures closed down 245.50 at 6,310.25 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and closed at a two-month low close today. Serious chart damage has been inflicted, including more today, to suggest a market top is in place and that near-term gains may be fleeting. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at this week's high of 6,813.50. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at this week's low of 6,260.25. First resistance is seen at

6,400.00 and then at 6,500.00. First support is seen at

6,260.25 and then at 6,200.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

 

The March e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed down 75.50 at 2,591.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and closed at a more-than-two-month low close. Major near-term chart damage has been inflicted, including more today, to strongly suggest a near-term market top is in place and that a future price uptrend will be very difficult to sustain. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at this week's high of 2,763.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at this week's low of 2,529.00. First resistance is seen at 2,625.00 and then at 2,650.00. First support is seen at today's low of 2,577.00 and then at 2,550.00.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.


Disclaimer

Need to re-examine my welcome letter to all new customers and an explanation of my Market Rating System, just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll get those attachments emailed right back to you.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.