Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - March 19, 2018

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

 

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.45 at 120.45 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a two- month low today. The cattle market bears have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid resistance at $125.00. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $118.05. First resistance is seen at today's high of $121.80 and then at $123.00. First support is seen at today's low of $120.12 and then at $119.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

 

May feeder cattle closed down $1.75 at $139.05 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a nearly seven-month low today. The feeder cattle market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close prices above technical resistance at $146.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $135.00. First resistance is seen at $140.00 and then at $141.00. First support is seen at today's low of $138.77 and then at $138.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

April lean hogs closed down $2.32 at $63.12 today. Prices closed near the session low and careened to a new contract low today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to close prices above solid chart resistance at $67.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at $64.00 and then at $65.00. First support is seen at today's contract low of $63.02 and then at $62.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

 

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed down 7 cents at $3.75 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a three-week low today. The corn bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been soundly negated. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at $3.88. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $3.65. First resistance is seen at $3.80 and then at today's high of $3.82. First support is seen at today's low of $3.74 3/4 and then at $3.72. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May soybeans closed down 25 1/2 cents at $10.23 3/4 a bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a five-week low today. Serious near-term technical damage was inflicted today, as a bearish V-Top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart, to suggest a market top is in place. The bean bulls have lost their overall near- term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at last week's high of $10.54. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at $10.30 and then at $10.40. First support is seen at today's low of $10.21 3/4 and then at $10.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May soybean meal closed down $13.80 at $358.80 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a five-week low today. The meal bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $380.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $340.00. First resistance comes in at $365.00 and then at $370.00. First support is seen at today's low of $358.20 and then at $355.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May bean oil closed down 8 points at 32.04 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 33.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 31.61 cents. First resistance is seen at last week's high of 32.37 cents and then at 32.50 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 31.72 cents and then at the March low of 31.43 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 15 3/4 cents at $4.52 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a seven-week low today. The wheat bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage amid the recent price downdraft. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close SRW prices above solid technical resistance at $4.85. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of $4.23 3/4. First resistance is seen at $4.60 and then at today's high of $4.66. First support is seen at $4.50 and then at $4.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

May HRW wheat closed down 29 1/4 cents at $4.70 1/4 today. Prices gapped lower on the daily bar chart, closed near the session low and hit a seven-week low today. The bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage amid the recent strong selling pressure. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.00. The bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.45. First resistance is seen at $4.80 and then at $4.90. First support is seen at today's low of $4.69 1/2 and then at $4.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 20 points at 12.85 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today and scored a bullish "key reversal" up on the daily bar chart after hitting a contract and multi-year low early on today. Today's reversal is a chart clue that a market bottom is now in place. However, right now the sugar bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 13.50 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 12.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week's high of 12.96 cents and then at 13.11 cents. First support is seen at 12.53 cents and then at today's contract low of 12.30 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

 

May coffee closed up 155 points at 119.60 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering after hitting a contract low last Friday. The coffee bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 124.20 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 110.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 120.00 cents and then at last week's high of 122.15 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 118.00 cents and then at the contract low of 116.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

May cocoa closed down $70 at $2,452 a ton today. Prices closed nearer the session low on profit taking after hitting a 1.5-year high last week. Today's price action also scored a big and bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. The cocoa bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nearly three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,700. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,331. First resistance is seen at $2,500 and then at $2,550. First support is seen at today's low of $2,439 and then at $2,400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

May cotton closed down 142 points at 81.46 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a two-week low today. Profit taking was featured. The cotton bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are now fading a bit. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 87.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 82.00 cents and then at 82.50 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 81.27 cents and then at 81.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

 

May orange juice closed down 50 points at $1.3780 today. Prices closed near the session low. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six- week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at $1.4600. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the December low of $1.3345. First resistance is seen at $1.4000 and then at $1.4335. First support is seen at the March low of $1.3740 and then at $1.3500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

 

May lumber futures closed down $1.70 at $487.40 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the recent selling pressure still suggests a market top is in place. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $450.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $500.00. First resistance is seen at last week's high of $496.00 and then at $500.00. First support is seen at today's low of $484.50 and then at $480.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

*. METALS: April gold futures closed up $5.60 at $1,318.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting a two-week low early on. The gold bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the March high of $1,342.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at last Friday's high of $1,321.80 and then at $1,325.00. First support is seen at today's low of $1,307.40 and then at the March low of $1,303.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

 

May silver futures closed up $0.038 at $16.31 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting a three- week low early on. The silver bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week- old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $16.895 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at $16.50 and then at last week's high of $16.69. Next support is seen at today's low of $16.32 and then at the March low of $16.16. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

May N.Y. copper closed down 185 points at 308.95 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 320.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 304.65 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 311.55 cents and then at 315.00 cents. First support is seen at 304.65 cents and then at 302.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

 

*. ENERGIES: May Nymex crude oil closed down $0.30 at $62.11 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field as trading has been choppy and sideways recently. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is closing prices above resistance at the February high of $64.07. The next near- term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of $57.60. First resistance is seen at last week's high of $62.60 and then at $63.00. First support is seen at today's low of $61.45 and then at $61.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May heating oil closed up 1 point at $1.9173 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a two-week high today. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at the February low of $1.8093. First resistance lies at $1.9300 and then at $1.9500. First support is seen at $1.9000 and then at $1.8700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

May (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 100 points at $1.9473 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $2.0236. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $1.8484. First resistance is seen at last week's high of $1.9650 and then at $2.0000. First support is seen 1.9200 and then at $1.9000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

May natural gas closed down 3.7 cents at $2.679 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a three-week low today. Bears have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.90. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $2.600. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2.736 and then at $2.75. First support is seen at today's low of $2.668 and then at $2.65. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed up 60 points at 1.2430 today. Prices closed near the session high today and scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 1.2658. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the March low of 1.2254. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.2474 and then at the March high of 1.2504. Next support is seen at today's low of 1.2343 and then at 1.2317. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

The June Japanese yen closed up 190 points at .95055 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at .97000. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at .93500. First resistance is seen at last week's high of .95305 and then at the March high of .95685. First support is seen at today's low of .94645 and then at .94000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

The June Swiss franc closed up 22 points at 1.0603 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and did hit a two-month low early on. The Swissy bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0800. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0400. First resistance is seen at 1.0650 and then at 1.0700. First support is seen at today's low of 1.0553 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

 

The June Australian dollar closed down 12 points at .7704 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a three-week low today. Bears have gained the overall near- term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at the March high of .7921. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of .7501. First resistance is seen at .7750 and then at .7800. First support is seen at today's low of .7690 and then at .7650. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

The June Canadian dollar closed up 7 points at .7657 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit an 11-month low today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at .7850. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at .7500. First resistance is seen at .7700 and then at .7739. Next support is seen at today's low of .7633 and then at .7600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

The June British pound closed up 105 points at 1.4101 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a five-week high today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more momentum today. A three-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.4300. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the March low of 1.3779. First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.4146 and then at 1.4200. First support is seen at 1.4000 and then at today's low of 1.3970. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 0.392 at 89.405 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid recent choppy trading. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 91.000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of 87.830. Next resistance lies at last week's high of 89.950 and then at 90.140. First support is seen at last week's low of 88.915 and then at 88.500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 6/32 at 144 20/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Prices hit a five- week high on Friday. The bond market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls have momentum on their side to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 141 14/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 147 even. First resistance is seen at last week's high of 145 11/32 and then at 146 even. First support is seen at 144 even and then at 143 13/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

 

June U.S. T Notes closed up 4.0 (32nds) at 120.15.0 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 122.02.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at the contract low of 119.14.0. First resistance is seen at the March high of 120.23.0 and then at 120.28.0. First support is seen at 120.10.0 and then at 120.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

 

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: U.S. stock indexes closed solidly lower today. World stock markets were also mostly lower Monday. A big drop in FaceBook occurred, amid allegations the social media platform gave away unauthorized data on 50 million of its users, which may have gone to the Russians. The specter of a protectionist U.S. trade policy and a likely rise in U.S. interest rates this week were also negatives for equity markets. There was more turmoil in the Trump administration over the weekend, amid new accusations against President Trump's administration after an FBI official was fired. This could have added some uneasiness to the marketplace. However, turmoil in the Trump administration is not anything new. The major economic data point of the week will be the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also holds his first press conference after the meeting. Most expect the Fed to slightly raise U.S. interest rates at this week's meeting. The Bank of England holds its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. There was no major U.S. economic data released Monday.

 

The March Nasdaq 100 stock index futures closed down 172.00 at 6,872.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but faded today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the contract high of 7,214.50. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of 6,676.00. First resistance is seen at 6,900.00 and then at 6,950.00. First support is seen at today's low of 6,821.25 and then at 6,800.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

The March e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed down 40.25 at 2,716.25 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but faded today. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the March high of 2,807.25. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of 2,647.00. First resistance is seen at 2,735.00 and then at today's high of 2,756.50. First support is seen at today's low of 2,697.25 and then at 2,686.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.


Disclaimer

Need to re-examine my welcome letter to all new customers and an explanation of my Market Rating System, just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll get those attachments emailed right back to you.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.