Global macro

Yes, Wednesday is FED day and the markets are expecting a 50 basis point increase in the FED FUNDS RATE to a range of 0.75% to 1%. The most important issue will be the size of the balance sheet… more

In the first post about the YEN/YUAN, we discussed the current significance of the cross, and with it a rising dollar. Now we will provide CONTEXT and NUANCE as to the backdrop of this cross’s… more

In the past three weeks I have had the pleasure of doing two major podcasts with two of the most highly regarded global macro thinkers and traders: Zoltan Pozsar and Louis Gave. Our discussions… more

There was an article in Foreign Affairs this week by Graham Allison, the dean of American political scientists, titled, “Putin’s Doomsday Threat: How to Prevent a Repeat of the Cuban Missile… more

This week I had the extreme pleasure of recording a Financial Repression Authority podcast with Zoltan Poszar (moderated by Richard Bonugli, of course). We covered the entire global scene from… more

In the past week there were three pieces published by highly respected investors and analysts about how Russia's invasion of Ukraine will portend the end of globalization. Adam Posen, Larry Fink… more

There are so many things to consider when trading in the current climate. First and foremost, CAUTION is the key word, not FEAR. As Billy Joel would say, “We didn’t start the fire,” but as traders… more

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey made a ridiculous comment almost two weeks ago and I’d be remiss not to mention it. Bailey issued his own FORWARD GUIDANCE on how to slow the pace of… more

Tomorrow is the first Friday of the month so it is known on trading desks as UNEMPLOYMENT Friday — or Unenjoyment Day for some — as volatility will reign in the early part of the trading day. As… more

If you’re only looking at the headlines from the past 48 hours, there is something major going on. First, on Friday afternoon Bloomberg reported that the G-7 finance chiefs are planning to discuss… more