Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - March 1, 2018

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

 

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $0.22 at 123.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting a five-week low early on. The cattle market bulls still have overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading and need to show fresh power soon. A five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Bulls'next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at the February high of $127.95. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $120.00. First resistance is seen at $124.00 and then at $125.00. First support is seen at today's low of $122.32 and then at $121.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

May feeder cattle closed down $0.55 at $148.00 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a three-week low today. The feeder cattle market bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. A two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close prices above technical resistance at the February high of $153.55. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $145.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $148.82 and then at $150.00. First support is seen at today's low of $146.77 and then at $146.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

 

April lean hogs closed down $0.42 at $66.95 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another 5.5-month low today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to close prices above solid chart resistance at $72.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $65.05. First resistance is seen at today's high of $67.82 and then at $69.00. First support is seen at today's low of $66.87 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

 

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed up 3 cents at $3.85 today. Prices closed near the session high and hit another five-month high today. The corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $4.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at $3.75. First resistance is seen at $3.88 and then at $3.90. First support is seen at $3.80 and then at this week's low of $3.74 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

May soybeans closed up 12 1/2 cents at $10.67 1/2 a bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a contract high today. The bean bulls have the solid near- term technical advantage as a steep six-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. However, the market is now overbought and due for a corrective pullback soon. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid resistance at $10.85. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $10.37. First resistance is seen at today's contract high of $10.68 3/4 and then at $10.75. First support is seen at $10.60 and then at $10.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

 

May soybean meal closed up $4.90 at $397.20 today. Prices closed near the session high and closed at a contract high close today. The meal bulls have the solid overall near- term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $400.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $370.00. First resistance comes in at the contract high of $399.20 and then at $400.00. First support is seen at $390.00 and then at today's low of $384.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

 

May bean oil closed up 14 points at 32.40 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 33.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 31.61 cents. First resistance is seen at 32.65 cents and then at this week's high of 32.96 cents. First support is seen at 32.20 cents and then at today's low of 31.93 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

May Chicago SRW wheat closed up 23 1/2 cents at $5.16 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a 6.5- month high today. The wheat bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to push and close SRW prices above solid technical resistance at $5.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.80. First resistance is seen at today's high of $5.18 and then at $5.25. First support is seen at $5.10 and then at $5.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

 

May HRW wheat closed up 21 1/4 cents at $5.43 1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a 6.5-month high today. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.75. The bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $5.45 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at $5.30 and then at today's low of $5.18 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

 

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 33 points at 13.71 cents today. Prices closed near the session high again today after hitting a 2.5-year low on Wednesday. Today's price gains confirmed a significantly bullish "key reversal" up on the daily bar chart, which is a chart clue that a market bottom is in place. But right now the sugar bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 14.02 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at this week's low of 12.82 cents. First resistance is seen at 13.85 cents and then at 14.02 cents. First support is seen at 13.50 cents and then at today's low of 13.28 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

 

May coffee closed up 195 points at 123.95 cents today. Prices closed near the session high on more short covering. The coffee bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 126.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 115.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 125.00 cents and then at 126.50 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 121.50 cents and then at this week's low of 120.30 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

 

May cocoa closed up $46 at $2,264 a ton today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a 13-month high today. The cocoa bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an accelerating seven- week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,400. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,150. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,279 and then at $2,300. First support is seen at $2,235 and then at $2,200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

 

May cotton closed down 128 points at 81.65 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range after hitting a five-week high early on today. Profit taking was featured. The cotton bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the January high of 84.45 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at the February low of 76.44 cents. First resistance is seen at 82.50 and then at today's high of 83.06 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 80.67 cents and then at 80.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

 

May orange juice closed down 345 points at $1.4120 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and closed at a six- week-low close today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at the February high of $1.5020. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.3600. First resistance is seen at $1.4320 and then at this week's high of $1.4590. First support is seen at the February low of $1.4050 and then at $1.3750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

 

May lumber futures again closed down the $10.00 limit at $491.70 today. More heavy profit taking was featured. Prices last week hit a contract high. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but two limit- down days in a row suggest a market top is in place. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $470.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of $520.00. First resistance is seen at $495.00 and then at $500.00. First support is seen at $490.00 and then at $485.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $10.90 at $1,307.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a two-month low today. The gold bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have established a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week's high of $1,342.90. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at $1,315.00 and then at today's high of $1,321.40. First support is seen at today's low of $1,303.60 and then at $1,300.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May silver futures closed down $0.097 at $16.31 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a 2.5-month low. The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $17.04 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $16.435 and then at Wednesday's high of $16.52. Next support is seen at today's low of $16.16 and then at $16.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

May N.Y. copper closed down 160 points at 311.65 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another two-week low today. The copper bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading this week. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 329.05 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 304.65 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 314.75 cents and then at Wednesday's high of 318.60 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 309.80 cents and then at 307.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

*. ENERGIES: April Nymex crude oil closed down $0.23 at $61.42 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw more profit taking after prices hit a three-week high on Monday. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. Rising U.S. shale oil production will likely cap gains to at or below the January high, in the coming weeks, or longer. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is closing prices above resistance at the January high of $66.39. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of $57.90. First resistance is seen at today's high of $61.83 and then at $62.00. First support is seen at $61.00 and then at today's low of $60.18. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

April heating oil closed down 154 points at $1.8881 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $2.1098. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at the February low of $1.8097. First resistance lies at today's high of $1.9120 and then at $1.9500. First support is seen at today's low of $1.8625 and then at $1.8500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 282 points at $1.8964 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week's high of $2.0122. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $1.8284. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1.9189 and then at 1.9500. First support is seen at today's low of $1.8777 and then at $1.8500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

April natural gas closed up 2.7 cents at $2.698 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a three-week high today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.82. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of $2.487. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2.731 and then at $2.75. First support is seen at this week's low of $2.633 and then at last week's low of $2.593. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed down 2 points at 1.2300 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit another six-week low today. The bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading badly. A bearish double-top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart and a fledgling downtrend is in place, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.2500. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the January low of 1.2040. First resistance for the Euro lies at Wednesday's high of 1.2340 and then at 1.2400. Next support is seen at today's low of 1.2254 and then at 1.2200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

 

The June Japanese yen closed up 45 points at .94500 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the contract high of .95485. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at .92000. First resistance is seen at this week's high of .94700 and then at .95000. First support is seen at .94000 and then at this week's low of .93595. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

The June Swiss franc closed down 28 points at 1.0666 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a six-week low today. The Swissy bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, an fledgling price downtrend on the daily bar chart is now in place to suggest a near- term top is in place. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 1.0986. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen at 1.0700 and then at 1.0750. First support is seen at today's low of 1.0642 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

 

The June Australian dollar closed down 58 points at .7722 today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a seven-week low today. Bears have regained the overall near- term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at .7900. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at .7600. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7765 and then at .7800. First support is seen at .7700 and then at .7650. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

 

The June Canadian dollar closed down 37 points at .7772 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another two-month low today. The bears have the solid overall near- term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at .7950. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the October low of .7763. First resistance is seen at .7800 and then at today's high of .7818. Next support is seen at .7763 and then at .7750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

 

The June British pound closed down 50 points at 1.3783 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a six- week low today. The bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.4200. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at 1.3600. First resistance is seen at 1.3850 and then at 1.3900. First support is seen at 1.3750 and then at 1.3700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 0.194 at 90.350 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a six- week high. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish double-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart and prices are in a fledgling uptrend, to suggest a market bottom is in place. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 91.500. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 89.000. Next resistance lies at today's high of 90.490 and then at 91.000. First support is seen at 90.000 and then at 89.500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

 

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 26/32 at 144 8/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on more short covering. The bond market bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 141 14/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 147 even. First resistance is seen at today's high of 144 18/32 and then at 145 even. First support is seen at today's low of 143 6/32 and then at 143 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

 

June U.S. T Notes closed up 17.0 (32nds) at 120.18.5 today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today, on more short covering. The bears still have the firm overall near- term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 122.02.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at the contract low of 119.14.0. First resistance is seen at today's high of 120.23.0 and then at 121.00.0. First support is seen at 120.10.0 and then at today's low of 120.00.5. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

 

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: U.S. stock indexes closed solidly lower today, partly on news the Trump administration has announced it will slap tariffs on steel and aluminum imported into the U.S. Such could trigger world trade wars. Despite the uptick in volatility in global stock markets recently, there does not seem to be much risk aversion in the marketplace. As we ended the tumultuous month of February, it appears that higher volatility is here to stay for a while-maybe not extreme volatility, but certainly up from the low levels seen during most of 2017. New Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to the U.S. Senate today did not produce anything significantly new or different from his remarks to the House of Representatives on Tuesday. Thus, markets were little moved on his comments today. The other key outside market on Thursday saw Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading just below $61.00 a barrel. Oil bulls are fading badly this week, amid growing U.S. oil production the past few months.

 

The March Nasdaq 100 stock index futures closed down 102.25 at 6,762.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the specter of a bearish double top reversal pattern exists on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the January high of 7,047.25. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 6,500.00. First resistance is seen at 6,800.00 and then at 6,850.00. First support is seen at today's low of 6,689.00 and then at 6,650.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

The March e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed down 35.75 at 2,678.75 today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the recent price uptrend has been negated. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at this week's high of 2,789.75. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at 2,600.00. First resistance is seen at 2,700.00 and then at today's high of 2,731.00. First support is seen at today's low of 2,658.50 and then at 2,625.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.


Disclaimer

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IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.