Yra Harris

Notes From Underground: Take Jerome With a Big Grain of Salt

Sep 22, 2022

A quick view on Wednesday’s FEDERAL RESERVE‘s meeting: According to the newest Fed stenographer, Nick Timiraos, look for the central bank to raise rates 75 basis points in an effort to get ahead of the curse of HEADLINE inflation. This level is... more

Notes From Underground: Neutral

Aug 22, 2022

On Friday I sat down with Richard Bonugli at the Financial Repression Authority and Doomberg to discuss the current situation in global energy and tried to peek into the future as to where Europe and the US are going to find the means to provide... more

Notes From Underground: Dissecting the Fed With Darius Dale

Aug 04, 2022

I yet another effort to understand where are going with the FED and their so-called NEUTRAL RATE, FRA hosted a podcast with Darius Dale of 42 Macro. It entertains themes familiar to readers of NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND as yield curves and currencies... more

Notes From Underground: We’re Back?

Aug 04, 2022

It has been quite an extended period since my last post, but now I’m trying to catch up on some reading and relevant research on all things pertinent to GLOBAL MACRO. Following the FEDERAL RESERVE’S INTEREST RATE DECISION and the POWELL PRESS... more

Notes From Underground: A European Discussion With Professor Polleit

May 06, 2022

Yes, Wednesday is FED day and the markets are expecting a 50 basis point increase in the FED FUNDS RATE to a range of 0.75% to 1%. The most important issue will be the size of the balance sheet unwind and whether Chair Jerome Powell is good to... more

Notes From Underground: Into the Weeds on Yen/Yuan

Apr 28, 2022

In the first post about the YEN/YUAN, we discussed the current significance of the cross, and with it a rising dollar. Now we will provide CONTEXT and NUANCE as to the backdrop of this cross’s significance. It is easy to forget that the Chinese... more

Notes From Underground: The Meaning of the Yen/YUAN Cross

Apr 28, 2022

In the past three weeks I have had the pleasure of doing two major podcasts with two of the most highly regarded global macro thinkers and traders: Zoltan Pozsar and Louis Gave. Our discussions led to an attempt to explain the importance of the... more

Notes From Underground: Time to Escalate and Deescalate the Fed and Putin?

Apr 11, 2022

There was an article in Foreign Affairs this week by Graham Allison, the dean of American political scientists, titled, “Putin’s Doomsday Threat: How to Prevent a Repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis in Ukraine.” The piece raises an important... more

Notes From Underground: Are Central Banks the Grand Illusion?

Apr 05, 2022

This week I had the extreme pleasure of recording a Financial Repression Authority podcast with Zoltan Poszar (moderated by Richard Bonugli, of course). We covered the entire global scene from yield curves, petro dollars and the underlying basis... more

Notes From Underground: Is Globalization Dead?

Mar 28, 2022

In the past week there were three pieces published by highly respected investors and analysts about how Russia's invasion of Ukraine will portend the end of globalization. Adam Posen, Larry Fink and Howard Markets all outlined the rollback of... more