Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update - March 5, 2018

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

 

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $1.03 at 123.20 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The cattle market bulls have overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded and need to show more power soon to keep their edge. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid resistance at the February high of $127.95. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $120.00. First resistance is seen at $124.00 and then at $125.00. First support is seen at last week's low of $121.90 and then at $121.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

May feeder cattle closed up $1.10 at $147.45 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering today. The feeder cattle market bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close prices above technical resistance at the February high of $153.55. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $143.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $148.17 and then at $149.00. First support is seen at $146.00 and then at today's low of $145.52. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

April lean hogs closed up $1.17 at $68.75 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering in a bear market after hitting a 5.5-month low late last week. The bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to close prices above solid chart resistance at $72.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $65.05. First resistance is seen at today's high of $69.10 and then at $70.00. First support is seen at today's low of $67.65 and then at last week's low of $66.87. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

 

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed up 2 1/2 cents at $3.87 1/4 today. Prices closed near the session high and closed at a six-month high close today. The corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at $4.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $3.75. First resistance is seen at last week's high of $3.88 and then at $3.90. First support is seen at $3.84 and then at $3.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

May soybeans closed up 6 3/4 cents at $10.76 3/4 a bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session high and closed at a contract high close today. The bean bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage as a steep two-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. However, the market is still overbought and due for a decent corrective pullback soon. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.50. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $10.82 1/2 and then at $10.90. First support is seen at today's low of $10.66 1/2 and then at $10.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

 

May soybean meal closed up $2.20 at $393.30 today. Prices closed near the session high today. Prices Friday hit a contract high. The meal bulls have the solid overall near- term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $415.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $375.00. First resistance comes in at today's high of $396.10 and then at $400.00. First support is seen at $390.00 and then at today's low of $385.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

 

May bean oil closed down 4 points at 32.23 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 33.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 31.61 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 32.58 cents and then at last week's high of 32.96 cents. First support is seen at 32.00 cents and then at last week's low of 31.93 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

May Chicago SRW wheat closed up 8 cents at $5.07 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The wheat bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more momentum today. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to push and close SRW prices above solid technical resistance at $5.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.80. First resistance is seen at today's high of $5.10 1/2 and then at last week's high of $5.18 1/2. First support is seen at $5.00 and then at $4.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

 

May HRW wheat closed up 7 3/4 cents at $5.45 1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh momentum today. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.75. The bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at last week's high of $5.48 1/2 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at today's low of $5.29 3/4 and then at $5.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 14 points at 13.56 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering. Last week's price gains confirmed a significantly bullish "key reversal" up on the daily bar chart, which is a chart clue that a market bottom is in place. But right now the sugar bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 14.02 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at last week's low of 12.82 cents. First resistance is seen at last week's high of 13.80 cents and then at 14.02 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 13.35 cents and then at 13.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

 

May coffee closed down 100 points at 121.20 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The coffee bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 126.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 115.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at last week's high of 124.20 cents and then at 126.50 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 119.95 cents and then at the February low of 118.55 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

May cocoa closed up $108 at $2,421 a ton today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a 1.5-year high today. The cocoa bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are in an accelerating two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,600. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,235. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,459 and then at $2,500. First support is seen at $2,400 and then at today's low of $2,331. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

 

May cotton closed up 266 points at 84.75 cents today.Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a contract high today. The cotton bulls have the solid overall near- term technical advantage and gained more power today. The next upside price breakout objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 87.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's contract high of 85.30 and then at 86.00 cents. First support is seen at 84.00 cents and then at 83.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

 

May orange juice closed up 180 points at $1.4040 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw short covering after hitting a seven-week-low early on today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at the February high of $1.5020. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.3600. First resistance is seen at $1.4100 and then at $1.4250. First support is seen at today's low of $1.3785 and then at $1.3500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

May lumber futures closed down $4.30 at $479.50 today. More heavy profit taking was featured. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the recent downdraft strongly suggests a market top is in place. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $450.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $500.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $487.70 and then at $490.00. First support is seen at today's low of $473.80 and then at $470.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $3.40 at $1,320.20 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The gold bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $1,342.90. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,328.90 and then at $1,335.00. First support is seen at #1,315.00 and then at $1,309.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

 

May silver futures closed down $0.056 at $16.41 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $17.04 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $16.62 and then at last week's high of $16.785. Next support is seen at today's low of $16.37 and then at last week's low of $16.16. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

 

May N.Y. copper closed up 50 points at 312.95 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded recently. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 329.05 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 304.65 cents. First resistance is seen at 314.75 cents and then at 318.60 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 309.55 cents and then at 307.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

*. ENERGIES: April Nymex crude oil closed up $1.32 at $62.57 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is closing prices above resistance at the January high of $66.39. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the February low of $57.90. First resistance is seen at $63.00 and then at $63.50. First support is seen at $62.00 and then at today's low of $61.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

April heating oil closed up 167 points at $1.8963 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $2.1098. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at the February low of $1.8097. First resistance lies at $1.9120 and then at $1.9500. First support is seen at last week's low of $1.8500 and then at $1.8097. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 335 points at $1.9349 today. Prices closed near the session high. The bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $2.0122. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $1.8284. First resistance is seen at $1.9500 and then at 1.9800. First support is seen at $1.9000 and then at the March low of $1.8566. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

 

April natural gas closed up 0.9 cents at $2.704 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.82. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of $2.487. First resistance is seen at last week's high of $2.731 and then at $2.75. First support is seen at last week's low of $2.633 and then at last week's low of $2.593. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed down 3 points at 1.2427 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained some upside momentum recently. Still, a bearish double-top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.2500. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at 1.2200. First resistance for the Euro lies at today's high of 1.2445 and then at 1.2500. Next support is seen at today's low of 1.2366 and then at 1.2300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

The June Japanese yen closed down 555 points at .94860 today. Prices closed near the session low on profit taking after prices hit a 15-month high last Friday. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at .97000. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at .92500. First resistance is seen at last week's high of .95685 and then at .96000. First support is seen at .94000 and then at last week's low of .93595. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

 

The June Swiss franc closed down 39 points at 1.0731 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The Swissy bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, a fledgling price downtrend on the daily bar chart is in place to suggest a near-term top is in place. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 1.0986. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0825. First support is seen at 1.0700 and then at the March low of 1.0642. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

 

The June Australian dollar closed up 9 points at .7766 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on tepid short covering after hitting a seven-week low last week. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at .7900. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at .7600. First resistance is seen at .7800 and then at .7850. First support is seen at last week's low of .7716 and then at .7675. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

 

The June Canadian dollar closed down 57 points at .7712 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a nine- month low today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at .7900. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at .7500. First resistance is seen at today's high of .7779 and then at .7800. Next support is seen at .7700 and then at .7650. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

The June British pound closed up 59 points at 1.3910 today. Prices closed near mid-range and saw short covering after hitting a six-week low last week. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. A six-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.4200. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at 1.3600. First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.3940 and then at 1.4000. First support is seen at last week's low of 1.3779 and then at 1.3700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

 

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 0.084 at 89.595 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish double-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart and prices are in a fledgling uptrend, to suggest a market bottom is in place. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 91.500. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 89.000. Next resistance lies at 90.000 and then at last week's high of 90.490. First support is seen at today's low of 89.770 and then at 89.500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 15/32 at 142 31/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bond market bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 141 14/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 147 even. First resistance is seen at 144 even and then at last week's high of 144 20/32. First support is seen at today's low of 142 21/32 and then at 142 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

 

June U.S. T Notes closed down 6.0 (32nds) at 120.00.0 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the February high of 122.02.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at the contract low of 119.14.0. First resistance is seen at 120.10.0 and then at 120.06.0. First support is seen at today's low of 119.28.5 and then at 119.20.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

 

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: U.S. stock indexes closed solidly higher today. The threat of a global trade war did prompt some safe-having buying in the gold and silver markets in overnight trading, after U.S. President Trump late last week announced he was slapping import tariffs on steel and aluminum. However, as the U.S. day session progressed, those worries seemed to subside as the stock market rallied. Italian elections on Sunday that produced no clear winner also threw some uncertainty into the marketplace. Italy is the European Union's third-largest economy. However, traders and investors did not view this matter as significantly markets-moving-at least not for now.

 

The March Nasdaq 100 stock index futures closed up 73.25 at 6,878.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the specter of a bearish double top reversal pattern still exists on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the January high of 7,047.25. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 6,500.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of 6,904.50 and then at 6,950.00. First support is seen at 6,800.00 and then at today's low of 6,742.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

 

The March e-mini S&P 500 futures stock index futures closed up 27.50 at 2,717.75 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the recent price uptrend has been negated. Bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at last week's high of 2,789.75. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at 2,600.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of 2,727.75 and then at 2,750.00. First support is seen at 2,700.00 and then at today's low of 2,663.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.


Disclaimer

Need to re-examine my welcome letter to all new customers and an explanation of my Market Rating System, just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll get those attachments emailed right back to you.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.

Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.