Each Wednesday this article will be updated with the current seasonal study using CQG’s Seasonal analysis applied to the Soybean,and Corn markets. You can download the CQG pac providing the studies and charts here.
Seasonal analysis is about price direction or the trend.
Soybeans
There was a slight shift in the short term correlation (20-days) from tracking the 6-year seasonal line to the 7-year seasonal line. But both correlations are somewhat low. The other years’ correlations are consistent to last week.
|
Correlation Lookback (Days) |
20 |
50 |
100 |
200 |
|
Seasonal Year Back with |
7_Yr |
8_Yr |
1_Yr |
8_Yr |
|
the Highest Correlation |
38.02 |
89.74 |
88.28 |
76.87 |
Last Week
|
Correlation Lookback (Days) |
20 |
50 |
100 |
200 |
|
Seasonal Year Back with |
6_Yr |
8_Yr |
1_Yr |
8_Yr |
|
the Highest Correlation |
52.58 |
88.13 |
87.02 |
73.46 |
Wheat
The short term correlation (20-days) is now tracking last year’s market. The 50-days correlation changed from the 4-year seasonal line to the 9-year seasonal line. The other years’ correlations are consistent to last week.
|
Correlation Lookback (Days) |
20 |
50 |
100 |
200 |
|
Seasonal Year Back with |
1_Yr |
8_Yr |
4_Yr |
1_Yr |
|
the Highest Correlation |
73.42 |
81.42 |
66.08 |
54.29 |
Last Week
|
Correlation Lookback (Days) |
20 |
50 |
100 |
200 |
|
Seasonal Year Back with |
6_Yr |
4_Yr |
4_Yr |
1_Yr |
|
the Highest Correlation |
47.42 |
70.65 |
70.64 |
56.58 |
Corn
The short term correlation (20-days) is now tracking the 9-year seasonal line with a low 31.61 correlation. The 50-days correlation changed from 8-year seasonal line to the 4-year seasonal line. The other years’ correlations are consistent to last week.
|
Correlation Lookback (Days) |
20 |
50 |
100 |
200 |
|
Seasonal Year Back with |
9_Yr |
4_Yr |
8_Yr |
1_Yr |
|
the Highest Correlation |
31.61 |
80.23 |
92.03 |
81.38 |
Last Week
|
Correlation Lookback (Days) |
20 |
50 |
100 |
200 |
|
Seasonal Year Back with |
8_Yr |
8_Yr |
8_Yr |
1_Yr |
|
the Highest Correlation |
86.25 |
95.86 |
89.52 |
78.65 |