Each Wednesday this article will be updated with the current seasonal study using CQG’s Seasonal analysis applied to the Soybean, Wheat and Corn markets. You can download the CQG pac providing the studies and charts here. Seasonal analysis is about price direction or the trend.
Soybeans
There was a slight shift in the short term correlation (20-days) from tracking the 7-year seasonal line to the 9-year seasonal line. The 100-days correlation is tracking the 10-year seasonal line. The 200-days correlation is still tracking the 8-year seasonal line.
| Correlation Lookback (Days) | 20 | 50 | 100 | 200 |
| Seasonal Year Back with the Highest Correlation | 9_Yr 74.35 |
8_Yr 78.03 |
10_Yr 89.28 |
8_Yr 78.43 |
| Last Week | ||||
| Correlation Lookback (Days) | 20 | 50 | 100 | 200 |
| Seasonal Year Back with the Highest Correlation | 7_Yr 38.02 |
8_Yr 89.74 |
1_Yr 88.28 |
8_Yr 76.87 |
Wheat
The short term correlation (20-days) is now tracking the 9-year’s seasonal line. The other years’ correlations are consistent to last week.
| Correlation Lookback (Days) | 20 | 50 | 100 | 200 |
| Seasonal Year Back with the Highest Correlation | 9_Yr 68.47 |
8_Yr 79.09 |
4_Yr 66.00 |
1_Yr 52.46 |
| Last Week | ||||
| Correlation Lookback (Days) | 20 | 50 | 100 | 200 |
| Seasonal Year Back with the Highest Correlation | 1_Yr 73.42 |
8_Yr 81.42 |
4_Yr 66.08 |
1_Yr 54.29 |
Corn
The short term correlation (20-days) is now tracking the 10-year seasonal line with a low 29.40 correlation. The 50-days and 100-days correlation are tracking the 8-year seasonal line. The 200-days correlation Is tracking the 1-year seasonal line.
| Correlation Lookback (Days) | 20 | 50 | 100 | 200 |
| Seasonal Year Back with the Highest Correlation | 10_Yr 29.40 |
8_Yr 92.75 |
8_Yr 93.68 |
1_Yr 82.67 |
| Last Week | ||||
| Correlation Lookback (Days) | 20 | 50 | 100 | 200 |
| Seasonal Year Back with the Highest Correlation | 1_Yr 73.42 |
8_Yr 81.42 |
4_Yr 66.08 |
1_Yr 54.29 |